碳酸锂日评：谨防价格冲高回落-20251028

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current supply and demand are both strong, with little inventory pressure upstream. The improvement in the macro - environment and the cancellation of warehouse receipts have driven up prices. However, production continues to grow while downstream stockpiling slows down, and the peak of power demand may be approaching. Therefore, beware of price spikes followed by declines. It is recommended to short on rallies [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures Market - Prices: On October 27, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month contract, consecutive - one contract, consecutive - two contract, and consecutive - three contract were 81,120 yuan/ton, 81,740 yuan/ton, 81,500 yuan/ton, and 79,100 yuan/ton respectively, showing an upward trend compared to previous dates. The active contract's closing price was 81,900 yuan/ton, up 2,380 yuan from the previous date [3]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the lithium carbonate futures was 514,455 lots (- 99,021), and the open interest was 483,478 lots (+ 52,304) [3]. - Inventory: The inventory was 27,739 tons, a decrease of 960 tons from the previous date [3]. - Spreads: The spread between the near - month and consecutive - one contracts was - 620 yuan/ton, and the spreads between consecutive - one and consecutive - two, and consecutive - two and consecutive - three contracts also showed certain changes [3]. - Basis: The basis of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price minus the closing price of the active lithium carbonate contract was - 1,230 yuan/ton, with an increase compared to the previous date [3]. 3.2 Spot Market of Lithium - Related Products - Lithium Ore: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 906 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars from the previous date; the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) also increased [3]. - Lithium Carbonate: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 75,400 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic) was 73,150 yuan/ton, with a stable price difference of 2,250 yuan/ton [3]. - Lithium Hydroxide: The average prices of different types of lithium hydroxide also showed an upward trend, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate changed [3]. - Other Products: The prices of products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt acid lithium, negative electrode materials, and electrolytes also had corresponding changes [3]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - Supply: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica prices rose [3]. - Demand: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In October, the production scheduling of cobalt acid lithium and lithium carbonate increased, and the production of power batteries increased last week. In September, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down, 3C shipments were average, and the production scheduling of energy - storage batteries increased in October [3]. 3.4 Industry News Argentina's rich lithium, copper, and shale oil and gas resources in Vaca Muerta have attracted large - scale investments. However, the backward infrastructure is the main bottleneck for industry development. The government is promoting the tender of the Belerzano Cargas state - owned freight railway project to improve logistics [3].