Huachuang Securities·2025-10-28 07:21Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer, with a target price of 90 CNY and 70 HKD [1][6]. Core Insights - The company shows resilience in operations with a gradual improvement in performance. The third quarter saw a slight revenue decline of 0.2%, but overall demand is improving, particularly in high-end product sales [6][7]. - The management team is actively innovating products and expanding market channels, which is expected to drive growth in the coming year [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profitability: For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 29.37 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.27 billion CNY, up 5.7% year-on-year [6][7]. - Quarterly Breakdown: In Q3 2025, total revenue was 8.88 billion CNY, with a net profit of 1.37 billion CNY, reflecting a 1.6% increase year-on-year [6][7]. - Sales Performance: The company sold 2.162 million kiloliters of beer in Q3, maintaining positive growth, with a slight decrease in price per ton to 4,105.2 CNY per kiloliter [6][7]. - Cost Management: The cost per ton decreased by 3.0% to 2,317.0 CNY, leading to a gross margin increase of 1.4 percentage points to 43.6% [6][7]. Future Outlook - The management anticipates improved performance in Q4 as the dining scene recovers, with a focus on product innovation and channel expansion [6][7]. - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is set at 4.73 billion CNY, 5.21 billion CNY, and 5.55 billion CNY respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [6][7].