Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - With the gradual alleviation of adverse factors from trade frictions, stock index may return to the upward channel. In the context of policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, the adjustment space of stock index is expected to be limited, and the strategy is to go long on stock index when opportunities arise [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning of interest rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - Market risk appetite has improved, which suppresses precious metal prices, but factors such as the ongoing US government shutdown and the expected interest rate cut by the Fed in October support the gold price, so the short - term gold price is expected to fluctuate [1] Summary by Industry Macroeconomic and Financial - Stock Index: Expected to return to the upward channel, with limited adjustment space, and the strategy is to go long when opportunities arise [1] - Bond Futures: Favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the rise [1] - Precious Metals: Gold price may fluctuate, while silver price may also fluctuate in the short term [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Indonesia's B50 implementation expectation in the next year provides support, but high inventory in Malaysia in September and expected inventory accumulation in October put pressure on the market. It is advisable to wait and see [1] - Soybean Oil: With the upcoming meeting between Chinese and US leaders, the negotiation result may bring new guidance. Currently, there are both supportive and suppressing factors, and it is advisable to wait and see [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The expectation of improved Sino - Canadian relations puts pressure on the market, while domestic rapeseed is still in short supply and inventory is decreasing. It is advisable to wait and see [1] - Cotton: There is uncertainty in cotton demand in the new year due to the contradiction between Xinjiang's capacity expansion and reduced spinning profit. The downside space of the market is limited, but the new crop may put pressure on the basis and the market [1] - Sugar: In the short term, sugar price has seasonal upward momentum due to the impact of typhoons on sugarcane harvest and the period of supply shortage. In the medium term, the rebound space is expected to be limited after the new sugar is listed [1] - Soybean: The domestic soybean purchase and crushing profit is poor, and the supply pressure is large. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to Sino - US policies and South American weather [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: With the improvement of macro - sentiment and the approaching of the Fed's interest rate meeting, copper price is expected to continue to be strong [1] - Aluminum: Due to the improvement of macro - sentiment and limited industrial drivers, aluminum price may remain strong [1] - Alumina: With the continuous release of domestic alumina production capacity, the output and inventory are increasing, and the spot price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to cost support [1] - Zinc: The LME zinc 0 - 3 spread has reached a record high, and the export expectation has strengthened, driving the domestic zinc price to rebound. The short - term Shanghai zinc is expected to remain at a high level [1] - Nickel: The short - term nickel price may be dominated by macro factors and fluctuate strongly, but the high inventory still suppresses the price. Attention should be paid to supply and macro changes [1] - Stainless Steel: The stainless steel futures may rebound in the short term, and the operation is recommended to be short - term, waiting for the opportunity to sell and hedge at high prices [1] - Tin: Affected by the improvement of macro - sentiment, the short - term tin price may fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long at low prices in the medium - long term [1] - Polysilicon: The production schedule in October has increased more than expected, and the demand for organic silicon is weak [1] - Carbonate Lithium: With the arrival of the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, strong energy storage demand, and overall large demand, it is bullish [1] Black Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The industrial drivers are not clear, and the futures valuation is low. It is not recommended to participate in directional trading [1] - Iron Ore: The direct demand is good, but the supply is high, and the inventory is at a high level. The price is mainly under pressure and fluctuating [1] - Ferrosilicon: The short - term production profit is poor, the cost support is strengthening, and the price may fluctuate strongly with limited downside [1] - Glass: The supply surplus pressure is large, and the price is under pressure [1] - Soda Ash: Follows the glass market, with large supply surplus pressure and price under pressure [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: The price has reached a relatively high level, and it may be difficult to break through the previous highs. It may fluctuate widely if there is no new policy on "anti - involution" [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Influenced by factors such as US sanctions on Russia, geopolitical tensions, and the softening of the US attitude towards China's tariffs [1] - Fuel Oil: Affected by the same factors as crude oil [1] - PTA: The news of promoting the "anti - involution" policy has pushed up the price, and the short - fiber price follows the cost closely [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Low port inventory, strengthened cost support, and stable polyester demand support the price [1] - Styrene: Weak Asian benzene price, reduced profit, and increased device maintenance [1] - Urea: There is support from "anti - involution" and cost, but the upside space is limited by insufficient domestic demand [1] - ASH: The price may fluctuate strongly with the improvement of downstream demand [1] - PVC: Supply pressure is large, and the price may fluctuate weakly [1] - Alumina: Planned production increase in Guangxi, reduced subsequent maintenance concentration, and weak fundamentals [1] - LPG: International oil and gas fundamentals are loose, and the domestic market is also in a loose state [1] - FE TANKE: The price has fallen to a low level and may rebound, and it is gradually entering the contract - changing rhythm [1]
日度策略参考-20251028
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-10-28 07:12