农产品日报：供强需弱格局维持，原糖创近五年新低-20251028

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] 2) Core Views - Cotton: The global cotton market supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose in the new year, with short - term external markets under pressure. In China, although the old - season cotton inventory is low, the new cotton supply is increasing. The short - term upward space for cotton prices is limited, but the medium - to - long - term outlook is relatively optimistic [2] - Sugar: The global sugar market in the 25/26 season may be in a bear cycle, with the raw sugar price hitting a new low. The short - term rebound space for Zhengzhou sugar is limited, but the downward space is also restricted [4][5] - Pulp: The pulp supply remains loose, and the demand is weak. The pulp price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of the peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [7][8] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - Market News and Key Data: On the futures side, the cotton 2601 contract closed at 13,565 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (+0.18%) from the previous day. On the spot side, the Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,690 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 14,833 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. From October 17 - 23, 2025, the US graded and inspected 153,500 tons of cotton for the 2025/26 season, with 77.6% meeting the ICE cotton futures delivery requirements [1] - Market Analysis: Internationally, due to the delay of key data release and the expected loose supply - demand pattern, the short - term external market is under pressure. In China, the old - season cotton inventory is low, but the new cotton supply is increasing. The short - term upward space for cotton prices is limited, and the medium - to - long - term depends on the implementation of the US cotton production reduction and export goals [2] - Strategy: Neutral. There is a high hedging pressure on the short - term disk, and there is a possibility of a callback. In the medium - to - long - term, the cotton price outlook is relatively optimistic [2] Sugar - Market News and Key Data: On the futures side, the sugar 2601 contract closed at 5,445 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (-0.02%) from the previous day. In Guangxi Nanning, the spot price was 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Yunnan Kunming, it was 5,725 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. In September 2025, China's refined sugar production was 539,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.4%, and from January - September, it was 10.984 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.8% [3] - Market Analysis: The raw sugar price hit a new low due to the strong supply from Brazil and the expected global sugar surplus. The short - term rebound space for Zhengzhou sugar is limited, but the downward space is also restricted as the import intensity is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter [4][5] - Strategy: Neutral. There is no obvious short - term driver, and Zhengzhou sugar may follow the weak trend of the external market. Attention should be paid to whether it can form a phased support around 5,400 [5] Pulp - Market News and Key Data: On the futures side, the pulp 2601 contract closed at 5,258 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (+0.34%) from the previous day. In Shandong, the spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp was 5,500 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,990 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - Market Analysis: The supply of pulp remains loose, with the overseas production reduction plan having limited impact. The demand is weak, with low paper mill operating rates and over - capacity in the paper industry. The downstream paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious [7] - Strategy: Neutral. The pulp price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of the peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [8]