航运衍生品数据日报-20251028

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The EC market is in a downward trend mainly due to some airlines starting to lower quotes for the first ten days of November. The European line is in the regular year - end price - holding stage, with the first attempt in late October showing initial results in stopping the decline, and it has entered the second round in early November. Future price - holding attempts are expected in the next two months. The strategy is to wait and see, and future attention should be paid to changes in Sino - US relations, end - of - month loading conditions, and empty flights in November [5][6] Summary by Relevant Information Shipping Derivatives Data - Freight Rate Index: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has a current value of 1403, a previous value of 1310, and a change of 7.11%. For different routes, SCFI - US West has a current value of 2153, a change of 11.21%; SCFIS - US West has a current value of 1107, a change of 28.42%; SCFI - US East has a current value of 3032, a change of 6.27%; SCFI - Northwest Europe has a current value of 1246, a change of 8.82%; SCFIS - Northwest Europe has a current value of 1312, a change of 15.09%; SCFI - Mediterranean has a current value of 1746, a change of 8.25%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) has a previous value of 973, with a change of - 100.00% [3] - Contracts: For contracts like EC2506, EC2608, etc., most show a downward trend in price. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1387.1, a previous value of 1397.9, and a change of - 0.77% [3] - Positions: There are changes in positions for different contracts. For example, EC2606 position has a current value of 1371, a previous value of 1377, and a change of (6) [3] - Monthly Spreads: The 10 - 12 monthly spread has a current value of - 644.1, a previous value of - 693.2, and a change of 49.1; the 12 - 2 monthly spread has a current value of 203.4, a previous value of 230.0, and a change of (26.6); the 12 - 4 monthly spread has a current value of 596.2, a previous value of 651.4, and a change of (55.2) [3] Market News - The US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he reached a "very substantial framework agreement" with Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng, which will avoid 100% US tariffs on Chinese products and extend China's rare - earth export controls. US President Donald Trump is confident of reaching an agreement with Chinese leaders after the Sino - US high - level economic officials' trade consultations [4] - CMA CGM, Maersk, and Mediterranean Shipping have started to re - flag some ships to India. India's shipping policies attract shipping orders and ship registrations, while the US's shipping revitalization in 2025 has weaker results [4] - The Suez Canal Authority expects its 2026 revenue to reach about $8 billion, up from the current about $4 billion as the regional situation stabilizes and ship traffic returns to pre - crisis levels [4] - The US and Vietnam have agreed to establish a "reciprocal, fair, and balanced trade framework agreement" to strengthen bilateral economic relations and provide market access for exporters [4] EC Market - Spot Prices: In late October, Maersk quoted 1800 - 1900, HPL quoted 1900, 00CL quoted 2600, etc. In early November, ISK quoted 2400, HPL quoted 2500, etc., with some prices showing changes [5] - Strategy: The recommended strategy is to wait and see [6]