液化石油气日报：现货端表现乏力，市场驱动有限-20251028

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - Unilateral strategy: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and observing [2] Group 2: Core View - The spot market of LPG is weak and has limited market drivers. Although the LPG market has been somewhat boosted by the sharp rebound in crude oil prices, the elasticity is limited and the spot reaction is relatively flat. The overall supply - demand pattern of LPG remains loose, with continuous growth in overseas supply, high exports from the Middle East and North America, and ample imported resources, which suppress the domestic market. However, the shrinking price difference between LPG and naphtha will stimulate the switching of raw materials from naphtha to LPG in cracking units. There are many short - term macro uncertainties, and the outcome of Sino - US trade negotiations is awaited [1] Group 3: Market Analysis - On October 27, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market 4200 - 4270 yuan/ton; Northeast market 3780 - 4060 yuan/ton; North China market 4150 - 4350 yuan/ton; East China market 4150 - 4260 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market 4520 - 4760 yuan/ton; Northwest market 4100 - 4180 yuan/ton; South China market 4250 - 4480 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of November 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 540 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton, and butane was 540 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4214 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton, and butane was 4214 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 534 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton, and butane was 534 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4167 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton, and butane was 4167 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton [1] - Recently, domestic civil gas prices have been stable with a slight decline, and downstream customers purchase as needed [1]