合成橡胶数据日报-20251028

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On October 27, the domestic butadiene market continued to decline. Although the synthetic rubber futures supported the morning market prices, downstream buying interest weakened, and suppliers lowered prices, leading to lower afternoon transactions and a downward trend in the market [3]. - China's high - cis butadiene rubber capacity utilization rate was 69.04%, up 1.05% from the previous working day. The theoretical production profit of butadiene rubber was stable at 48 yuan/ton [3]. - With increasing cost - side negatives and no improvement in demand, and butadiene rubber entering centralized maintenance, the domestic butadiene rubber market is expected to continue weak consolidation, with the spot market potentially becoming more weakly consolidated and real - time transactions continuing to offer discounts [3]. - Strategy: BR is expected to move in a consolidation pattern; when the spread widens again, consider going long on BR and short on RU or NR [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market of Synthetic Rubber - For BR2512.SHF, the closing price was 10995 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan (-1.12%); the settlement price was 11045 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan (-0.99%); the trading volume was 131980, up 31320 (31.11%); the open interest was 49618, down 17076 (-25.60%); the warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 8920 [3]. - In terms of price spreads, the spread between consecutive months and cross - month spreads showed different degrees of decline, such as the spread between consecutive two and consecutive three was -10 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan (-300%); the spread between BR and RU was -4385 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan (-4.03%) [3]. Crude Oil Market - WTI was at 61.75 US dollars/barrel, up 2.37 US dollars (3.99%); Brent was at 65.26 US dollars/barrel, up 1.37 US dollars (2.14%); SC was at 465 yuan/barrel, up 5.2 yuan (1.13%) [3]. Butadiene (BD) Market - The domestic market prices in regions such as Hangzhou, Jiangsu, and Shandong all declined. For example, the price in Hangzhou was 8450 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan (-1.17%) [3]. - Some domestic factory ex - factory prices decreased, such as Nanjing Yangzi and Guangzhou Petrochemical, down 200 yuan/ton (-2.33%) [3]. - International prices: CFR China remained unchanged at 990 US dollars/ton; FD Northwest Europe was at 730 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars (-2.01%) [3]. - In the industrial chain, the cost of carbon - four extraction increased by 173.54 yuan/ton (2.54%), and the profit decreased by 173.54 yuan/ton (-9.81%); the profit of oxidative dehydrogenation decreased by 100 yuan/ton (-64.94%) [3]. Butadiene Rubber (BR) Market - Domestic market prices in regions such as North China, East China, and South China remained unchanged, as did the ex - factory prices of some enterprises like Qilu Petrochemical and Yangzi Petrochemical [3]. - International prices: FOB China, CFR Northeast Asia, and CFR Southeast Asia remained unchanged [3]. - In the industrial chain, the cost decreased by 206 yuan/ton (-1.81%), and the profit increased by 206 yuan/ton (130.38%); the production capacity utilization rate decreased by 3.12 percentage points (-4.17%), and the production volume decreased by 0.13 million tons (-4.17%) [3]. - Inventories: Commercial inventories increased by 750,000 tons (2.69%), and trader inventories decreased by 340,000 tons (-7.00%) [3]. - In terms of price spreads, the spread between high - cis and BR increased by 125 yuan/ton (73.53%); the spread between Thai mixed and butadiene rubber increased by 100 yuan/ton (2.53%) [3].