燃料油日报：盘面偏强运行，但宏观不确定性仍存-20251028

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, short-term wait-and-see [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, short-term wait-and-see [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fuel oil market is running strongly, but there are still macro uncertainties. The sanctions on Russia have led to concerns about supply decline, driving up oil prices and the energy sector. The fuel oil market shows a pattern where high-sulfur is stronger than low-sulfur [1][2] - The impact of sanctions on high-sulfur fuel oil is more significant, but the decline in Russian supply is difficult to quantify. If the actual impact on supply is not high, the upward drive for high-sulfur fuel oil is limited. Low-sulfur fuel oil has weak fundamentals and abundant spot supplies, but the restart of Dangote's RFCC device is expected to relieve local supply pressure [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 1.28% at 2,842 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1.21% at 3,267 yuan/ton [2] - Sanctions on Russia have led to concerns about supply decline, driving up oil prices and the energy sector. The fuel oil market is running strongly, but caution is needed due to important macro events [2] - The fuel oil market shows a pattern where high-sulfur is stronger than low-sulfur. The impact of sanctions on high-sulfur fuel oil is more significant, but the decline in Russian supply is difficult to quantify. The demand for fuel oil in the Middle East is expected to decline, and Saudi exports may increase after refinery maintenance. If the actual impact on supply is not high, the upward drive for high-sulfur fuel oil is limited [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil has weak fundamentals, weak downstream marine fuel demand, and abundant spot supplies. The restart of Dangote's RFCC device is expected to relieve local supply pressure [2] Strategy - High-sulfur: Neutral, short-term wait-and-see [3] - Low-sulfur: Neutral, short-term wait-and-see [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]