FICC日报：股债汇商齐涨，关注金融街论坛政策信号-20251028

Report Highlights Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5]. Core Views - The release of the main targets of the 15th Five-Year Plan has boosted market sentiment, and expectations of an average GDP growth rate of around 5% during the 15th Five-Year Plan period have strengthened [1]. - After the Sino-US economic and trade consultations, the two sides reached a "very substantial framework agreement," and the US "no longer considers" imposing a 100% tariff on China [2][6]. - The Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet in the next few months, and the expectation of another interest rate cut by the Fed within the year has increased [3]. - The US government shutdown has entered its 24th day, hitting the second-longest record in history, and the market has relatively underestimated the severity of the shutdown [3]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - The A-share market strengthened on October 27, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 4000 points, hitting a new high for the year, and the ChiNext Index rising nearly 2%. The storage chip sector exploded, and the controllable nuclear fusion concept was repeatedly active. The bond market and commodity market also showed an upward trend [1]. International Situation - From October 26th to 27th, the Sino-US economic and trade teams held consultations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, and reached a preliminary consensus on multiple important economic and trade issues [2][6]. - The Fed's road to easing may be relatively smooth, but the US government shutdown event still needs attention [3]. Commodity Market - In the short term, it is advisable to take a wait-and-see approach to the commodity market. In the second half of inflation, attention should be paid to possible breakthrough directions in non-ferrous metals and energy [4]. Policy and News - The central bank will resume open market treasury bond trading, and the CSRC will deepen the reform of the ChiNext and give play to the role of long-term funds [1]. - The People's Bank of China will explore a mechanism to provide liquidity to non-bank institutions in specific scenarios [6]. - The CSRC will introduce a shelf registration system for refinancing and broaden the support channels for mergers and acquisitions and reorganizations [6].