化工日报：青岛港口库存继续小幅下降-20251028

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral; BR is also rated neutral [7] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, domestic inventory has declined since early October due to a slowdown in arrivals and a rebound in tire开工率. The cost - end support is strong, but supply is expected to increase in the peak season. The overall domestic supply - demand may show a pattern of both supply and demand increasing. If arrivals rebound later, inventory reduction may slow down or accumulate again. Currently, the valuations of RU and NR are low, and prices are expected to move within a range. Attention should be paid to the contango arbitrage opportunities in the spread [7] - For cis - butadiene rubber, there are still many units under maintenance, and supply - side support is expected to remain. The demand for winter tires in the north has boosted the开工率 of steel tires. Supply - demand may improve, and raw material prices are expected to be stable. However, the high inventory may limit the rebound space [7] Market News and Data Futures - The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,380 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,540 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,995 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,700 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 15,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,880 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,770 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1] Market Information Heavy - Truck Market - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, reaching a new high in the same period in recent years [2] Natural Rubber Imports - In September 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4,717,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [2] Automobile Production and Sales - In September 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9%, and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9%. For the first time in the same period in history, automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million vehicles, and the year - on - year growth rate has remained above 10% for 5 consecutive months [3] Rubber Tire Exports - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 7.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; the export value was 127.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 7.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%; the export value was 122.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In terms of the number of tires, the export volume was 534.91 million, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The export volume of automobile tires was 6.22 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%; the export value was 105.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spread - On October 27, 2025, the RU basis was - 680 yuan/ton (+5), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 380 yuan/ton (+45), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,337 yuan/ton (- 3,336.51), the NR basis was 786 yuan/ton (+27); the price of whole latex was 14,700 yuan/ton (+50), the price of mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton (+0), the price of 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (+50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,880 US dollars/ton (+10), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 550 yuan/ton (+0); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,600 yuan/ton (+0) [4] Raw Materials - The price of Thai smoked sheet was 60.06 Thai baht/kg (+1.17), the price of Thai latex was 54.50 Thai baht/kg (+0), the price of Thai cup lump was 53.15 Thai baht/kg (+0.75), the difference between Thai latex and cup lump was 1.35 Thai baht/kg (- 0.75) [4] 开工率 - The开工率 of all - steel tires was 65.87% (+1.91%), and the开工率 of semi - steel tires was 72.84% (+1.77%) [5] Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 124,020 tons (- 10,980), and the NR futures inventory was 42,640 tons (+2,521) [5] Cis - Butadiene Rubber Spot and Spread - On October 27, 2025, the BR basis was - 195 yuan/ton (+25), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 8,300 yuan/ton (- 100), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,900 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of private cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,680 yuan/ton (- 120), and the import profit of cis - butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,960 yuan/ton (- 48) [6] 开工率 - The开工率 of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 71.71% (- 2.12%) [6] Inventory - The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 4,520 tons (- 340), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 28,650 tons (+750) [6]