2025年碳酸锂11月策略报告：供应看矿，需求看储能-20251028

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side still has projects ramping up or awaiting production both domestically and overseas. If the mine supply remains stable, lithium salt production is expected to grow strongly. - The demand side shows that the demand for cathode materials is expected to increase steadily, and the terminal market, including new - energy vehicles and energy storage, remains strong. - In November 2025, if there are no changes in the mine end, there is expected to be a supply - demand gap of 1.2 million tons. - The operation suggestion is to buy 2601 and sell 2605 [2][58]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Carbonate Lithium Market Review in October 2025 - In October, the fundamentals of carbonate lithium showed increased production, decreased inventory, and continuous growth in futures. By October 27, the main contract closed at 81,900 yuan/ton, up 9,020 yuan/ton (+12.4%) within the month. The average spot price of SMM battery - grade carbonate lithium was 76,600 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade was 74,300 yuan/ton, both up about 4% month - on - month. - In October, raw material prices rose, with a slightly larger increase than lithium salts. By October 27, the price of SMM lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 906 US dollars/ton, up 49 US dollars/ton (+6%) within the month, and the price of SMM lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,990 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton (+6%) [8]. 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Domestic Lithium Mines - Domestic lithium mine production decreased month - on - month. In September, the sample production of domestic mines was 20,000 tons of LCE, a month - on - month decrease of 700 tons of LCE (-3.4%), and the cumulative production from January to September was 205,000 tons of LCE, a year - on - year increase of 52,000 tons of LCE (+34%). - Projects in the process of ramping up production include Lijiagou, Dahongliutan, and Lagocuo [11]. 3.2.2 Overseas Lithium Resources - Australian mines: Production continued to grow, but the growth rate slowed down. In the second quarter, the production of operating mines was about 940,000 tons of ore, a month - on - month increase of about 108,000 tons (+13%), and the sales volume was about 996,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 150,000 tons (+18%). - South American salt lakes: Continued to grow rapidly. New projects were put into production in 2025, and the Atacama salt lake was expanding production. - American mines: The main projects were relatively stable, with increased production and sales volume month - on - month. In the second quarter, the production of the main lithium spodumene projects in the Americas was 140,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 16,500 tons (+13%), and the sales volume was about 120,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 20,000 tons (+18%). - African mines: Expected to have considerable growth, but geopolitical issues may disrupt production and shipping [16][17][18]. 3.2.3 Domestic Carbonate Lithium Capacity and Production - Capacity: The total smelting capacity of carbonate lithium in China has expanded rapidly in the past two years. In October 2025, the monthly total smelting capacity was close to 150,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 37,400 tons (+33%), mainly from the lithium spodumene and salt lake ends. - Production: The overall production of domestic lithium salt plants has continuously reached new highs this year. In September, the production was 87,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,000 tons (+2.4%), and the cumulative production was 684,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 203,000 tons (+42%) [23]. 3.2.4 Import of Lithium Ore and Lithium Salt - Lithium concentrate: The cumulative import volume increased slightly. In September, the import of lithium concentrate was 521,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 50,000 tons (+10.6%), and the cumulative import from January to September was 4.37 million tons (+3.4%). Among them, the cumulative import of Australian ore increased by 8.5% year - on - year, and that of Zimbabwean ore decreased by 15%. - Lithium salt: In September, the import of carbonate lithium was 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,200 tons (-10%), and the cumulative import in September was 173,000 tons (+5.2%) [28]. 3.3 Demand Side 3.3.1 Direct Demand - The production schedule of cathode materials is expected to increase steadily. In September, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 356,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons (+13%); the production of ternary cathode materials was 75,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,000 tons (+3%). In October, the estimated production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased by 5% and 1.65% month - on - month respectively, and the production schedule in November is expected to remain strong [39]. 3.3.2 Terminal Demand - Power market: The sales of new - energy vehicles in China still had a high growth rate. In September 2025, the cumulative sales of new - energy vehicles (including exports) were 11.198 million, a year - on - year increase of 34.6%, and the sales penetration rate reached 49.72%. The sales of pure - electric heavy - duty trucks increased rapidly, and the proportion of plug - in hybrids decreased. - Energy storage: Due to cost reduction and policy support, there is an expected increase in demand. From January to September, the total winning bid capacity of energy storage was 131.6 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 37.8% [45][46]. 3.4 Inventory and Outlook 3.4.1 Inventory - Mine - end inventory dropped to a low level. Lithium salt inventory has been gradually reduced for about 3 months, and the warehouse receipt volume decreased rapidly in advance [51]. 3.4.2 Carbonate Lithium Outlook in November - There are still projects ramping up or awaiting production both at home and abroad. - Raw materials: The Jianxiawo project in China has stopped production, and some mining rights in Jiangxi are still uncertain. Overseas, the production and sales volume of Australian mines, South American salt lakes, and American lithium spodumene in the second quarter did not decrease significantly. Lithium ore inventory has fallen to a low level in the past half - month. - Lithium salt: Production continues to increase, and the proportion of lithium spodumene - end carbonate lithium production has increased from 55% at the beginning of the year to 64%. - Import: The subsequent import of lithium ore and lithium salt depends on the geopolitics in Africa and whether overseas producers will adjust sales volume due to price fluctuations. - Overall, if there are no changes in the mine end, there is expected to be a supply - demand gap of 1.2 million tons in November 2025 [56][58].