农林牧渔行业报告（2025.10.20-2025.10.26）：猪价不具备大幅上涨基础

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2]. Core Views - The agricultural sector underperformed the market, with the agricultural index declining by 1.36% while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.88% [12][15]. - The pig price has rebounded slightly but lacks the foundation for significant increases, with prices reaching 11.71 yuan/kg as of October 26, 2025, reflecting a weekly increase of 0.68 yuan/kg [5][17]. - The white feather chicken market shows stable chick prices at 3.5 yuan/chick, but the terminal demand remains weak, leading to losses in broiler chicken farming [31][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural sector performed poorly, significantly lagging behind the broader market indices [12][15]. 2. Livestock Industry Chain Tracking 2.1 Pigs: Price Lacks Strong Rebound Foundation - National pig prices have rebounded to 11.71 yuan/kg, but significant price increases are not expected due to increased supply and weak demand [5][17]. - As of October 24, 2025, self-breeding pig farms faced an average loss of 186 yuan per head, while purchased piglets incurred a loss of 289 yuan per head [18]. - The Ministry of Agriculture reported a slight decrease in breeding stock in September, indicating a potential acceleration in capacity reduction [19][20]. 2.2 White Feather Chicken: Stable Prices, Weak Terminal Demand - Chick prices are stable, but broiler prices are under pressure due to weak consumer demand, leading to losses in farming [31][32]. - The number of grandparent stock updated has decreased significantly, with a 19.01% reduction compared to the previous year [31][32]. 3. Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices continue to decline, with white sugar priced at 5750 yuan/ton as of October 24, 2025 [39]. - Soybean prices have slightly increased, with Brazilian soybeans at 4011 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.4% rise [39]. - Cotton prices have seen a minor increase, now at 14793 yuan/ton, while corn prices remain stable at 2217 yuan/ton [39].