货币政策专题：年内还有降准降息吗？

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The necessity of a reserve requirement ratio cut is increasing due to liquidity pressure on banks' liability side in Q4, but the possibility of an interest rate cut requires further observation of economic data and tariff game impacts [3][4] - If a reserve requirement ratio cut occurs, it may drive down short - term and certificate of deposit rates; if an interest rate cut occurs, the magnitude is crucial, and the bond market may experience a small decline in interest rates, but the downward space is limited [48][49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 History of Q4 Reserve Requirement Ratio and Interest Rate Cuts - In the past 5 years, except for 2021, policy rates were generally cut twice a year but not in Q4. In 2020, cuts were in H1; in 2024, in H2; in 2022, once each in H1 and H2, mostly by 10BP, with 20BP cuts in March 2020 and September 2024 [1][10] - In 2021, there was no interest rate cut, but the 1 - year LPR was cut by 5BP in Q4. In 2024, the policy rate was cut by 20BP in September and the LPR by 25BP in October [10] - From 2020 - 2022, reserve requirement ratio cuts were about twice a year, once each in H1 and H2, and there were cuts in Q4 of 2021 - 2022. In 2020, affected by the pandemic, comprehensive and targeted cuts were used in H1 [11] 3.2 Central Bank's Stance on Monetary Policy - After the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in early May this year, the policy focus shifted to the implementation of existing policies, with room for flexible adjustment based on the situation [2] - The "opportunistic" in "opportunistic reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts" has three meanings: adverse changes in the economic fundamentals, weakened effects of expansionary fiscal policies, and a sharp decline in the capital market [2][17] - Currently, the necessity for monetary policy to support expansionary fiscal policies may be decreasing, and the focus of monetary policy may be on supporting economic growth, which depends on macro - economic conditions [2][18][19] 3.3 Possibility of Reserve Requirement Ratio and Interest Rate Cuts This Year 3.3.1 Necessity of a Reserve Requirement Ratio Cut - Banks' liability side faces liquidity pressure in Q4, increasing the necessity of a cut. The high maturity scale of medium - and long - term liquidity, the need to supplement liquidity regularly under the "structural liquidity shortage" framework, and the special situation this year (large - scale high - interest time deposit maturities and a narrowing M2 - M1 gap) all contribute [20][21][24] 3.3.2 Possibility and Boundaries of an Interest Rate Cut - Since 2024, the central bank launched "policy combos" under different domestic and international macro - environments. Currently, there are similarities and differences, leading to a divergence in market expectations for loose monetary policy [28] - Although Q4 economic data is expected to slow down compared to Q3, it doesn't directly mean a window for policy intensification. It is necessary to observe economic performance from November to December and the impact of the tariff game [39][40] - To support the real economy, a cut in structural monetary policy tools may come first. And a cut may not be the only way to promote a reasonable rise in prices and reduce the real economy's financing costs. Also, a cut may put pressure on banks' net interest margins [45][46] 3.4 Impact on the Bond Market - The probability of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts is increasing marginally, but it is not a high - probability event. Reserve requirement ratio cuts and cuts in structural monetary policy tools may come first [48] - If a reserve requirement ratio cut occurs, it may drive down short - term and certificate of deposit rates. If an interest rate cut occurs, the magnitude is crucial, and the bond market may experience a small decline in interest rates, but the downward space is limited by the current low - interest rate level and policy imagination space brought by the "14th Five - Year Plan" [49][50]