Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-28 09:32Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The domestic cotton market is in the new cotton listing stage. The upside of cotton prices is restricted by hedging. In the short term, the upward space for cotton prices is limited. The supply side shows that Xinjiang cotton harvesting is over 50%, faster than last year, with a slight increase in ginning factory processing costs, while inland cotton acquisition is slow due to rain. The demand side indicates that the downstream textile enterprises' demand is weak, and the "Silver October" replenishment is not obvious. Attention should be paid to the impact of trade situations on the market [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 13,565 yuan/ton, unchanged; cotton yarn main contract closing price is 19,765 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are -110,691 lots, an increase of 2,111 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are -141 lots, a decrease of 8 lots. - Cotton main contract positions are 579,084 lots, a decrease of 6,203 lots; cotton yarn main contract positions are 24,095 lots, a decrease of 94 lots. - Cotton warehouse receipts are 2,471 sheets, a decrease of 17 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 6 sheets, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 14,830 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 20,475 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,116 yuan/ton; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - duty) is 14,050 yuan/ton. - The arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 21,145 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan; for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 22,491 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 540,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,645 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan. - The national industrial inventory of cotton is 861,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 1.0217 million tons, a decrease of 460,000 tons. - Cotton import volume is 100,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume is 130,000 tons, unchanged. - Imported cotton profit is 823 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days are 25.24 days, an increase of 0.39 days; grey fabric inventory days are 31.43 days, an increase of 0.31 days. - Monthly cloth output is 2.811 billion meters, an increase of 0.11 billion meters; monthly yarn output is 2.0738 million tons, an increase of 45,900 tons. - Monthly clothing and clothing accessories export value is 12,453,247,000 US dollars, a decrease of 1,692,657,000 US dollars; monthly textile yarn, fabric and product export value is 11,966,516,000 US dollars, a decrease of 426,686,000 US dollars [2] Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility is 6.5%, down 0.08%; cotton at - the - money put option implied volatility is 6.5%, down 0.08%. - Cotton 20 - day historical volatility is 8.2%, unchanged; cotton 60 - day historical volatility is 7.97%, down 0.03% [2] Industry News - As of October 27, 2025, the cumulative notarized inspection of cotton processed by national cotton processing enterprises in the 2025/26 season is 6,378,658 bales, totaling 1,440,701 tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.28%. The cumulative notarized inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton is 1,414,998 tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.79%. - ICE cotton futures rose on Monday, driven by a weak US dollar and optimism about the alleviation of trade tensions supporting global cotton demand. The ICE December cotton futures contract closed up 0.36 cents, or 0.40%, at 64.56 cents per pound [2]