Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-28 09:32Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests to buy on dips and place long orders [2] 2) Core Viewpoints - In the first half of 2025, China's wind and solar power installed capacity exceeded thermal power, marking the energy revolution entering a deeper stage. The large - scale construction and grid - connection of new energy power stations are key to achieving the "dual carbon" goal [2] - On the supply side of polysilicon, as the dry season approaches in Southwest China in November, production costs for polysilicon enterprises are rising, and some enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan have started to reduce production. On the demand side, the photovoltaic industry chain has weak demand. Component tender prices are continuously falling, leading to delays in centralized projects and a reduction in the demand for polysilicon from silicon wafers [2] - Although N - type silicon materials maintain a certain premium due to the increasing penetration rate of TOPCon battery technology, the price of ordinary materials is approaching the cost line, and the overall industry gross margin is narrowing [2] - Internationally, high inventory in the European market suppresses import demand. The loosening of US tariff policies drives the growth of energy storage system exports but cannot fully offset the negative impact of the European market. However, emerging markets such as the Middle East and Latin America show a surge in demand, buffering the decline on the demand side [2] - Market rumors about the government's potential policy to regulate photovoltaic production capacity have boosted market confidence, but the specific details and implementation time of the policy are still unclear [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 54,355 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan; the open interest of the main contract is 114,932 lots, up 9,055 lots. The basis between December and January for polysilicon is 40 yuan, down 65 yuan; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 45,400 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan [2] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 52,980 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of N - type silicon wafers (210R) is 1.36 yuan/piece, unchanged. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.51 US dollars/kg, down 0.02 US dollars; the basis of polysilicon is - 1,520 yuan/ton, down 2,195 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,955 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,350 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 70,232.72 tons, down 6,409.29 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,939.85 tons, up 602.27 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 402,800 tons, up 36,000 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 130,000 tons, up 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1,292 tons, up 286 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.9 US dollars/kg, up 0.01 US dollars; the monthly average import price of polysilicon is 2,350 US dollars/ton, down 270 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 70,873,000 kilowatts, up 1,016,000 kilowatts; the average price of mainstream photovoltaic modules is 0.74 yuan/watt, unchanged. The weekly comprehensive price index (SPI) of the photovoltaic industry for polysilicon is 32.82, unchanged; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 yuan/W, up 0.01 yuan. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 129,531,200 pieces, down 19,491,300 pieces; the monthly import volume is 14,733,700 pieces, down 6,706,500 pieces. The monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.3 US dollars/piece, up 0.06 US dollars [2]