重启国债买卖影响几何？：固定收益点评

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The resumption of Treasury bond trading by the central bank has short - term emotional boosting effects on the bond market, but its signaling significance may be greater than the substantial impact. The medium - to - long - term trend of the bond market still awaits the substantial implementation of key policies such as the reform of fund redemption fees and the overall downward shift of the interest rate center brought about by reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The central bank may also adjust its operation intensity and rhythm according to the downward rhythm of market interest rates [5][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Why the Resumption? - In January 2025, the central bank suspended Treasury bond trading due to the rapid decline of bond market interest rates (the 10Y Treasury bond yield dropped from 2.14% in early November 2024 to 1.63% at the end of January 2025 and once hit a historical low below 1.6%) and the pressure on the RMB exchange rate (the USD/CNY exchange rate once rose above 7.3). The central bank aimed to suppress excessive speculation in the bond market and maintain exchange rate stability [12]. - The reasons for the resumption at the current time include: the bond market has returned to a relatively high level (the 10Y Treasury bond fluctuates in the range of 1.8% - 1.9%); the need to inject liquidity into the market (only one reserve requirement ratio cut this year and year - end seasonal pressure); some short - term bonds bought by the central bank last year may mature this year; and the need to hedge potential supply pressure from policies such as "pre - allocating part of the new local government debt quota for 2026" and "accelerating the implementation of policy - based financial instruments" [13]. Impact on the Bond Market - In terms of the purchase term, the central bank may continue the "buy - short" mode and the necessity of "sell - long" has decreased. Since June, large banks have continuously increased their holdings of short - term interest - rate bonds, which may be preparing for the central bank's operation. Currently, the 10Y Treasury bond yield is at a relatively reasonable level, so the central bank's need to "sell - long" to regulate yields has declined. The bond - buying behavior of large banks can be tracked to judge the central bank's operation [14]. - Although the resumption of Treasury bond trading has boosted market sentiment in the short term (the yield of the active 10Y Treasury bond dropped by 5BP on October 27), this emotional impact may be short - lived and difficult to fundamentally change the bond market's operation logic [14].