纯碱玻璃周报-20251028

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: "Soda Ash and Glass Weekly Report - Donghai Futures Black Building Materials Weekly Strategy" [1] - Report Date: October 27, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Liu Huifeng, Wu Bingxin [2] Group 2: Soda Ash and Glass Futures Market Review - Weekly Price Changes: The closing price of the soda ash main contract was 1229 yuan, with a daily increase of 20 yuan and a daily increase rate of 1.65%. The closing price of the glass main contract was 1092 yuan, with a daily decrease of 3 yuan and a daily decrease rate of -0.27%. The trading volume of the soda ash main contract was 1,407,877 lots, an increase of 2231 lots from the previous week, and the trading volume of the glass main contract was 1,721,622 lots, an increase of 163,001 lots from the previous week [6]. - Price Trends: The report presents the historical closing price trends of the soda ash and glass main contracts, as well as the weekly price fluctuations and trading volume changes [3][4][6]. Group 3: Soda Ash Fundamental Analysis - Production: China's soda ash production has increased week - on - week, with some plants resuming operation and the operating rate rising. Soda ash is still in the capacity - launch period, and the supply pressure persists [68]. - Capacity Utilization: The overall capacity utilization rate of soda ash has increased. The capacity utilization rates of the ammonia - soda process and the combined - soda process are 91.09% and 76.23% respectively, with week - on - week increases of 1.67 and 0.49 percentage points, and week - on - week increase rates of 1.87% and 0.65% respectively [30]. - Inventory: The total factory inventory of soda ash is 170.21 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.16 tons, an increase rate of 0.09%. Among them, the heavy - soda ash inventory is 93.45 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62 tons, a decrease rate of - 0.66%, and the light - soda ash inventory is 76.76 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.78 tons, an increase rate of 1.03% [36]. - Profit: The weekly profit of soda ash has decreased, and the current loss is expanding [68]. Group 4: Glass Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The number of operating glass production lines and the capacity utilization rate remained stable last week, with overall supply remaining stable and little week - on - week change [69]. - Demand: The order days of downstream deep - processing plants are 11 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 days. The peak - season demand has slightly improved, but it is still not good compared to the same period last year, showing a situation of "peak season not prosperous" [69]. - Inventory: The report shows the inventory trends of glass in different regions and overall in China, including factory inventories and trader inventories [49][56][60]. - Profit: The profits of float glass using natural gas, coal, and petroleum coke as fuels have decreased week - on - week [69]. Group 5: Market Outlook and Recommendations - Soda Ash: Although the anti - involution policy is clear, there is no clear industry document issued in the soda ash industry yet. The driving force of soda ash following the policy is insufficient. Currently, the supply pressure of soda ash still exists. In the medium - to - long - term, the contradiction on the supply side is the core factor dragging down and suppressing prices. It is recommended to take a long - term bearish view [68]. - Glass: Glass is supported by the anti - involution policy, but the overall demand is still weak. Attention should be paid to the demand for glass during the year - end peak construction period. Short - term range trading is recommended [69].