镍与不锈钢日评：成本支撑走弱不锈钢逢高沽空-20251028

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel Market: The nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, but the valuation is at a low level. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate at a low level. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. - Stainless Steel Market: The fundamentals are loose, and the cost support is weakening. It is expected that the upside space for stainless steel is limited. The recommended trading strategy is to short on rallies [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - Price and Volume: On October 27, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated within a range. The trading volume was 129,533 lots (-15,670), and the open interest was 108,989 lots (-12,453). The LME nickel price fell 0.17%. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed [1]. - Supply: Nickel ore prices remained flat. Last week, the arrival volume of nickel ore decreased, and port inventories decreased. Nickel iron smelters' losses deepened. In October, domestic production increased, and Indonesian production increased. Nickel iron inventories decreased. In October, domestic electrolytic nickel production increased, and export profits decreased [1]. - Demand: Ternary battery production increased. Stainless steel mills' production increased. The demand for alloys and electroplating was stable [1]. - Inventory: Inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, LME inventories increased, social inventories increased, and bonded area inventories decreased [1]. Stainless Steel Market - Price and Volume: On October 27, the main stainless steel contract fluctuated within a range. The trading volume was 158,384 lots (+20,953), and the open interest was 115,124 lots (-29,055). The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed [1]. - Supply: In October, stainless steel production increased, and the production of the 300 - series decreased [1]. - Demand: Terminal demand was weak [1]. - Cost: The price of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome decreased [1]. - Inventory: Inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. Last week, the social inventory of the 300 - series was 612,700 tons (-9,000) [1]. Industry News - Indonesia's nickel processing industry has shown significant expansion. By 2025, Indonesia's nickel production is expected to account for 67% of the global total, and this proportion is expected to rise to 75% from 2027 - 2028. There are 173 nickel processing projects in progress, including 134 using pyrometallurgical technology (RKEF) and 39 using hydrometallurgical technology (HPAL). 65 RKEF plants and 12 HPAL plants are in commercial operation [1].