固定收益专题：二永债如何配

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, the market risk appetite has declined, and the high - elasticity secondary and perpetual (Er Yong) bonds have seen dual benefits of falling interest rates and narrowing spreads. Since October, the yields of 10 - year treasury bonds and 5 - year AAA - secondary capital bonds have both declined, with the latter having a significantly larger decline. The spreads have also narrowed, with the secondary capital bond spreads compressing more significantly [1][8]. - The supply of Er Yong bonds remains weak, and the background of asset shortage continues. The issuance of Er Yong bonds has decreased this year, and the net financing scale is expected to decline further next year. Meanwhile, the demand for Er Yong bonds may fluctuate due to factors such as regulations on public fund redemption fees and new accounting standards for insurance [10][14]. - The amplifying effect of Er Yong bonds as "interest rate amplifiers" has weakened recently, mainly due to the reduced trading attribute. The main demand force for Er Yong bonds has changed, deepening their allocation characteristics and weakening trading attributes [2][15]. - The credit spreads of 5 - year Er Yong bonds have a large compression space. The current credit spreads of Er Yong bonds are only slightly lower than those of ultra - long credit bonds, and their investment value should not be ignored [3][24]. - The pricing fitting model estimates that the yield of 5 - year AAA - secondary capital bonds may decline to around 2.07% next year. There are three investment ideas based on the scale - valuation bubble chart: band - trading of state - owned bank Er Yong bonds, extending duration for high - rated Er Yong bonds, and credit - sinking with controlled duration [4][42]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: This year, with treasury bonds supplementing the core tier - one capital of large state - owned commercial banks, the issuance of Er Yong bonds has decreased. For example, the net financing of Bank of Communications and Bank of China's secondary capital bonds from January to October 24 was - 40 billion yuan and - 10 billion yuan respectively. The overall net financing scale of Er Yong bonds from January to September was lower than that of the same period last year. Next year, the maturity scale of Er Yong bonds will remain at a high level of 1.12 trillion yuan, and the net financing scale is expected to decline further [10]. - Demand: Regulations on public fund redemption fees may have a negative impact on bond funds, leading to the sale of Er Yong bonds. Although the new regulations have not been officially implemented, the adjustment range may be limited. In the future, in the context of asset shortage, funds will still increase bond allocation, but the redemption and allocation process will have a phased impact on the market. Also, from 2026, non - listed insurance companies will implement new accounting standards, which may affect their enthusiasm for allocating Er Yong bonds [14]. Er Yong Bond Turnover Statistics - From January to September this year, the monthly turnover rate of Er Yong bonds remained relatively stable. The average monthly turnover rate of secondary capital bonds was 18.14%, with an average monthly trading volume of 769.1 billion yuan, and the average monthly turnover rate increased by 0.8% compared to last year. The average monthly turnover rate of bank perpetual bonds was 20.35%, with an average monthly trading volume of 519.2 billion yuan, and the average monthly turnover rate decreased by 1.00% compared to last year [2][18]. - Among state - owned banks, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank had relatively high trading activity; among joint - stock banks, China Minsheng Bank, Shanghai Pufa Bank, Ping An Bank, China Merchants Bank, and China CITIC Bank were more active; among city and rural commercial banks with assets over one trillion yuan, Bank of Jiangsu, Bank of Hangzhou, Bank of Beijing, and Huishang Bank had relatively high trading activity [2][20]. Credit Spread Compression Space - As of October 23, the credit spreads of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year AAA - secondary capital bonds were 8.81bp, 19.99bp, and 41.29bp respectively, at historical percentiles of 0.6%, 14.2%, and 79.7% since 2024. The credit spreads of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year AA - secondary capital bonds were 15.2bp, 31.2bp, and 63.7bp respectively, at historical percentiles of 0.0%, 18.0%, and 64.1% since 2024 [3][24]. - The current credit spread of 5 - year AAA - secondary capital bonds is only slightly lower than that of 7 - year AA + medium - term notes. Since the end of 2024, the credit spread of 5 - year AAA - secondary capital bonds has mostly been lower than that of 7 - year AA + medium - term notes, and the two have been relatively close since September [3][26]. Pricing Fitting Model - The pricing fitting model uses five variables: the funding price R007, weekly net financing of Er Yong bonds, weekly net financing of urban investment bonds, secondary weekly demand for Er Yong bonds, and the turnover rate of Er Yong bonds to fit the yield of secondary capital bonds [29]. - Assuming different scenarios for R007, weekly net financing of Er Yong bonds, weekly net financing of urban investment and industrial bonds, secondary weekly demand, and turnover rate, the yield center of 5 - year AAA - secondary capital bonds may be at 1.91%, 2.07%, or 2.23% [4][38]. Full Review of Er Yong Bond Scale and Valuation - The outstanding scale of AAA - secondary capital bonds accounts for 96%, with an average valuation of 2.12%. The outstanding scale of AAA - bank perpetual bonds accounts for 96.2%, with an average valuation of 2.35% [4][39]. - There are three investment ideas based on the scale - valuation bubble chart: band - trading of state - owned bank Er Yong bonds, extending duration for high - rated Er Yong bonds (e.g., those of Ping An Bank, Minsheng Bank, Everbright Bank, and Bohai Bank), and credit - sinking with controlled duration (e.g., those of Yingkou Bank, Shengjing Bank, and Great Wall Huaxi Bank) [4][42].