冠通期货研究报告：供需宽松难改善，反弹受阻

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The short - term stabilization of agricultural demand is difficult to change the pattern of loose supply and demand for urea. Urea price rebounds are blocked, and it will mainly fluctuate at a low level in the short term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - Urea futures opened low and moved high, closing down on the day. The domestic spot market was mainly stable, with factories mostly fulfilling previous orders, and demand was slightly weaker than in previous days. The ex - factory price range of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was 1530 - 1590 yuan/ton, with the lowest price in Henan, and large orders from individual manufacturers were still negotiable [1][4] - The daily production of urea has rebounded slightly recently, but there are still factories under inspection and shutdown, so the output fluctuation is small. Due to the increasing losses of gas - fired units, Zhongyuan Dahua has shut down. With the approaching of winter gas and production restrictions, the daily production of gas - fired units is expected to decline next month. The profit of coal - water slurry process has continuously declined, and there is cost support below the urea futures price [1] - As time progresses, after the agricultural demand, the finished product inventory of factories is gradually being depleted, but it is still slightly higher than the previous period last year. Northeast compound fertilizer is expected to gradually start production in late November. As the autumn fertilizer production is coming to an end, the subsequent operating rate is expected to gradually increase, and the production of spring compound fertilizer will gradually start. The inventory accumulation rate in factories has decreased, but it is still in the inventory accumulation cycle, and the inventory is expected to climb moderately [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1636 yuan/ton, opened low and moved high, closing down on the day, and finally closed at 1635 yuan/ton, forming a negative line, with a change rate of - 0.37% and a position of 273001 lots (- 8953 lots) [2] - On October 28, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 2970, a decrease of 2318 from the previous trading day. Among the top 20 major positions in the main contract, long positions decreased by 5539 lots and short positions decreased by 6215 lots. Rongda Futures had a net long position of + 695 lots, Zhongtai Futures had a net long position of - 649 lots; CITIC Futures had a net short position of + 2287 lots, and CICC Wealth had a net short position of - 1014 lots [2] Spot - The domestic spot market was mainly stable, with factories mostly fulfilling previous orders, and demand was slightly weaker than in previous days. The ex - factory price range of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was 1530 - 1590 yuan/ton, with the lowest price in Henan, and large orders from individual manufacturers were still negotiable [4] Basis - Today, the mainstream spot market quotation remained stable, while the futures closing price decreased. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was - 45 yuan/ton (+ 5 yuan/ton) [7] 3. Fundamental Tracking - On October 28, 2025, the national daily urea production was 190400 tons, unchanged from yesterday, with an operating rate of 80.45% [8]