PVC日报：震荡运行-20251028

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core View of the Report The PVC market is expected to oscillate in the near term due to high social inventory, upcoming end of maintenance for some producers, high futures warehouse receipts, and strengthening cost - side, despite current relatively high PVC operating rates and some positive signs in exports and downstream demand [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the northwest region, the upstream of PVC, remains stable. The PVC operating rate decreased by 0.12 percentage points to 76.57% week - on - week, still at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream operating rate of PVC continued to rise, exceeding the levels of the past two years but still at a low level [1]. - India postponed the BIS policy for another six months until December 24, 2025. Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, lowered its November quotation by $30 - 40 per ton. India announced an increase in anti - dumping duties on imported PVC from the Chinese mainland by about $50 per ton on August 14, weakening the export outlook for Chinese PVC in Q4. However, exports in September were still good, and export orders have not weakened significantly [1]. - From January to September 2025, the real estate market was still in the adjustment phase, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further drops in year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, and construction. The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased week - on - week and remained near the lowest level in recent years [1]. - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is still positive, and the PVC operating rate is higher than in previous years. New production capacities, such as Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 - ton/year, Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 - ton/year, Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 - ton/year, Gansu Yaowang's 300,000 - ton/year, and Jiaxing Jiahua's 300,000 - ton/year, have come into operation at different stages [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2601 contract oscillated with increasing positions, closing at 4,716 yuan/ton, down 0.21%, with an increase of 37,096 lots in open interest to 1,248,205 lots [2]. - On October 28, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4,630 yuan/ton. The basis of the V2601 contract was - 86 yuan/ton, weakening by 13 yuan/ton and at a relatively low - neutral level [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Companies such as Hangjin Technology and Shandong Xinfafa are under maintenance. The PVC operating rate decreased by 0.12 percentage points to 76.57% week - on - week, still at a relatively high level in recent years. New production capacities have been gradually put into operation [4]. - Demand: The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase. From January to September 2025, national real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. The sales area of commercial housing was 658.35 million square meters, down 5.5% year - on - year. As of the week ending October 26, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 2.09% week - on - week after the National Day, reaching the lowest level in recent years [5]. - Inventory: As of the week ending October 23, PVC social inventory increased by 0.13% week - on - week to 1.0352 million tons, 24.87% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory is still relatively high [6].