沥青日报：震荡下行-20251028

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is showing a downward trend with fluctuations. The supply side has seen a decline in the asphalt operating rate, and the expected production in November is decreasing. The downstream operating rate has mostly increased, and the national shipments have increased. The inventory ratio of asphalt refineries has slightly decreased and remains at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. Due to factors such as international events affecting crude oil prices and the large decline of the asphalt basis in Shandong from a high level, it is recommended to cautiously observe the asphalt futures price [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Last week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 4.7 percentage points to 31.1% week - on - week, 2.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In November, the domestic asphalt is expected to produce 222.8 million tons, a decrease of 45.4 million tons (16.9%) month - on - month and 27.4 million tons (11.0%) year - on - year. The downstream operating rates of asphalt industries mostly increased last week, with the road asphalt operating rate increasing by 3 percentage points to 32% week - on - week, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, restricted by funds and rainfall in some areas. The refinery supply in the East China region increased, and the national shipments increased by 14.73% week - on - week to 29.07 million tons, at a neutral level. The inventory ratio of asphalt refineries decreased slightly week - on - week and remains at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. Qilu Petrochemical refinery is in stable production, and the asphalt output will increase slightly. Projects in many northern regions are rushing to work, the weather has improved, and the market is actively shipping, but funds are still restricted. Recently, crude oil prices have rebounded significantly from a low level, and the asphalt basis in Shandong has decreased significantly from a high level and is currently at a moderately high level [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract fell 0.79% to 3279 yuan/ton, near the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3263 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 3295 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 3762 to 197,268 lots [2]. - The mainstream market price in Shandong decreased to 3320 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract decreased to 41 yuan/ton, at a moderately high level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, refineries such as Shandong Shengxing and Guangzhou Petrochemical have stopped production for maintenance, and the asphalt operating rate decreased by 4.7 percentage points to 31.1% week - on - week, 2.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. From January to August, the national highway construction investment decreased by 7.1% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate slightly rebounded compared with January - July 2025 but was still negative. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry was - 2.7%, a slight rebound from - 3.3% from January to August 2025 but still in a negative growth situation. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased from 2.0% in January - August 2025 to 1.1%. As of the week of October 24, the downstream operating rates of asphalt industries mostly increased, with the road asphalt operating rate increasing by 3 percentage points to 32% week - on - week, slightly exceeding the level of the same period last year, restricted by funds and rainfall in some areas. From January to September 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of the social financing stock was 8.7%, 0.1 percentage point lower than that from January to August. In September, the new social financing reached 3.53 trillion yuan, but with a high base, it was 233.5 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Attention should be paid to the progress of forming physical workload [4]. Inventory - As of the week of October 24, the inventory ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 16.0% compared with the week of October 17 and remains at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [5].