贵金属策略报告-20251028

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term risk - aversion situation shows that the potential meeting between China and the US may ease trade - war risks, while the risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, with weak employment and moderate inflation, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts is being realized [1]. - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, the China - US trade negotiations have reached a preliminary consensus, with Trump being optimistic and China being cautious. Trump has cancelled his meeting with Putin and complained about the deadlock in negotiations [1]. - Regarding the monetary attribute, the US consumer price increase in September was slightly lower than expected. The Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet in the coming months, and the market expects a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in October with a probability of over 90%, and about 2 more cuts within the year [1]. - From the perspective of the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index is oscillating downward, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will show short - term weak oscillations, medium - term high - level oscillations, and long - term step - up trends [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Market Performance: Today, precious metals oscillated downward, with the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closing down 4.20% and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closing down 3.32% [1]. - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. With the Fed's decision and China - US talks this week, risk management is recommended [2]. - Data Summary: International gold prices (Comex and London) and domestic gold prices (Shanghai gold futures and gold T + D) all declined. The positions of Comex gold and Shanghai gold futures decreased, while the positions of gold T + D increased. Some inventories decreased slightly [2]. Silver - Market - related Factors: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF slightly increased. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver slightly decreased [5]. - Strategy: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Risk management is necessary during the Fed's decision and China - US talks [6]. - Data Summary: International and domestic silver prices declined. The positions of Comex silver and Shanghai silver futures decreased, while the positions of silver T + D increased. Inventories generally decreased [6]. Fundamental Key Data - Monetary Attribute: The federal funds target rate, discount rate, and reserve balance rate all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets decreased slightly. There were changes in inflation, economic growth, labor market, real - estate market, consumption, industrial, trade, and economic - survey indicators [8][10]. - Safe - haven Attribute: The geopolitical risk index increased by 30.89% compared to the previous day and 69.51% compared to the previous week, while the VIX index decreased by 10.97% compared to the previous week [12]. - Commodity Attribute: The CRB commodity index decreased by 0.48% compared to the previous day but increased by 2.08% compared to the previous week. The offshore RMB exchange rate changed slightly [12]. - Fed's Interest - rate Expectations: The market has different expectations for the Fed's interest - rate levels in different periods from October 2025 to September 2027 [13].