Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-28 10:18Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The global sugar market is under pressure due to increased supply and demand concerns, with ICE raw sugar futures hitting a near - five - year low. In the domestic market, the supply of northern beet sugar will gradually increase in the short term, and the import volume of sugar is expected to exceed 500 tons this year, with significant pressure from later imports. Downstream demand is seasonally declining. However, the futures price is supported by cost, and the price is expected to be mainly in a weak oscillation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5483 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan; the main contract position is 400,036 lots, down 1562 lots [2]. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 7695, down 100; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 74,205 lots, up 4811 lots [2]. - The effective warehouse receipt forecast is 586, unchanged; the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar (within quota) is 4135 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4194 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan [2]. - The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 5241 yuan/ton, down 92 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 5319 yuan/ton, down 91 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5720 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; in Nanning is 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou is 5780 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the cumulative national sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 5.49 million tons [2]. - The cumulative national sugar sales volume is 999.98 million tons, up 44.98 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 89.99%, up 1% [2]. - The monthly import volume of sugar is 550,000 tons, down 280,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil is 324.58 million tons, down 49.82 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current Liuzhou sugar price (within quota) is 1410 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 1351 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan [2]. - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current Liuzhou sugar price (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 304 yuan/ton, up 88 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 226 yuan/ton, up 87 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 53.91 million tons, up 8.5 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1591.7 million tons, down 184.1 million tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 7.85%, down 1.32%; that of put options is 7.85%, down 1.37% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.68%, down 0.04%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.1%, down 0.16% [2]. Industry News - China has suspended the import of all syrups and premixes from October 27 due to syrup quality issues announced by the Thai Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives [2]. - ICE raw sugar futures hit a near - five - year low on Monday, with the most actively traded March contract down 0.51 cents or 3.40% to 14.46 cents per pound [2]. Other Information - In the 2025/26 sugar - making season, 26 sugar mills in Mongolia and Xinjiang have all started production, with an expected total output of about 1.4 million tons [2]. - In September 2025, China's sugar import volume was 550,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 280,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 35.8%; from January to September 2025, the cumulative sugar import volume was 3.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 270,000 tons or 9.4% [2]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs predicts that China's total sugar import volume this year will exceed 5 million tons, and the pressure of later import volume is still significant [2].