银河期货花生日报-20251028

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The price of peanuts in Henan continues to decline, while that in the Northeast remains stable. It is expected that the peanut spot market will be relatively weak in the short term [4]. - Some peanut oil mills have started purchasing, with the mainstream transaction price ranging from 7,800 to 7,900 yuan/ton. The theoretical break - even price for oil mills is 7,920 yuan/ton. The prices of soybean oil and peanut oil are stable. The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is strong, while peanut meal is weak in the short term [5]. - Recently, the price of common peanuts has declined, and the price of imported peanuts is stable. With an increase in supply and weak downstream demand, the peanut price will be relatively stable in the short term. The peanut futures will fluctuate at the bottom, and the peanut 01 contract will continue to show a weak oscillation [7]. 3) Summary by Sections First Part: Data - Futures Disk: For PK604, the closing price is 7,916, down 6 (-0.08%), with a trading volume of 302 (down 41.02%) and an open interest of 1,832 (up 8.40%); for PK510, the closing price is 8,136, down 2 (-0.02%), with a trading volume of 12 (down 76.92%) and an open interest of 425 (unchanged); for PK601, the closing price is 7,806, down 14 (-0.18%), with a trading volume of 52,811 (down 35.08%) and an open interest of 179,298 (down 2.02%) [2]. - Spot and Basis: The spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi are 8,600, 8,400, and 8,400 respectively, with no change. The prices of Rizhao peanut meal, Rizhao soybean meal, peanut oil, and Rizhao first - grade soybean oil are 3,250, 2,990, 14,580, and 8,370 respectively, with the soybean meal price up 40 and the soybean oil price down 30. The import prices of Sudanese peanuts and Senegalese peanuts are 8,500 and 0 respectively [2]. - Spread: The spreads and their changes for PK01 - PK04, PK04 - PK10, and PK10 - PK01 are provided [2]. Second Part: Market Analysis - The price of peanuts in Henan has declined, with the price of Baisha common peanuts in Henan ranging from 3.45 - 3.6 yuan/jin, down 0.35 yuan/jin compared to the previous day. The price in Shandong Junan is 4.0 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin. The price of imported Brazilian new peanuts is stable at 9,200 yuan/ton. The price of peanuts in the Northeast is stable, with the price of 308 common peanuts in Jilin Fuyu and Liaoning Changtu at 4.1 yuan/jin [4]. - Some peanut oil mills have started purchasing, with the mainstream transaction price ranging from 7,800 to 7,900 yuan/ton. The theoretical break - even price for oil mills is 7,920 yuan/ton. The prices of soybean oil and peanut oil are stable. The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is strong, while peanut meal is weak in the short term [5]. Third Part: Trading Strategies - Single - side: For the 01 and 05 peanut contracts, they are oscillating at a low level, and it is advisable to wait and see [8]. - Calendar Spread: Wait and see [9]. - Options: Sell and hold the pk601 - P - 7600 option [10]. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - There are six figures including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, the压榨 profit of peanut oil mills, the price of peanut oil, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread between peanut 10 - 1 contracts, and the spread between peanut 1 - 4 contracts [13][16][20].