Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Report Date: October 28, 2025 - Analyst: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The ferroalloy market is currently oscillating, with the upward momentum gradually weakening after two consecutive days of doji candlesticks at the close. The recent rise in ferroalloy prices has been mainly driven by short - covering, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure levels [4]. - The ferroalloy market is facing several core contradictions, including the contradiction between high inventory and weak demand, the challenge to cost support, and the contradiction between the expectation of anti - involution and weak reality. Overall, although supported by coking coal prices, the fundamentals are insufficient to support a significant upward movement, and the upside space is limited [5][7]. Summary by Directory Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.84% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 41.3%. For ferromanganese, the monthly price range forecast is also 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.93% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.3% [3]. Hedging Strategies - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price declines, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2601, SM2601) according to their inventory levels to lock in profits and cover production costs. The selling ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2601, SM2601) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5200 - 5300, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. Market Review - The ferroalloy market has been oscillating, and the upward movement has been driven by short - covering. The upward momentum is weakening, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure [4]. Core Contradictions - High Inventory and Weak Demand: Ferroalloy production profits are declining, and there is little expectation of further production increases. However, downstream demand has not improved significantly during the peak season, and the inventory of five major steel products is increasing. The inventory of ferromanganese enterprises is at a five - year high, with a month - on - month increase of 11.8%, indicating high inventory pressure [5]. - Cost Support Challenge: Although the prices of semi - coke, electricity, and manganese ore are stable, the pattern of high supply and weak demand in the ferroalloy market remains unchanged, challenging the effectiveness of cost support. However, the tight supply of coking coal, stricter environmental inspections, and political factors in Mongolia have led to a significant increase in coking coal prices, providing short - term support for ferroalloy prices [5]. - Contradiction between Expectation and Reality: The anti - involution sentiment still lingers in the market, and there is an expectation of supply contraction. However, the lack of substantial actions increases the risk of price reversals after reaching highs. The profitability rate of steel mills has dropped below 50%, increasing the risk of negative feedback in the black market, which further weakens the already weak fundamentals of steel and ferroalloy. After the Fourth Plenary Session, there was no unexpected total stimulus or strong real - estate stimulus, providing limited support for the strong rebound of the cycle and real - estate chains [5][7]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - Likely Positive Factors: The Sino - US economic and trade consultations have alleviated market concerns about Sino - US relations; the US CPI inflation data in September was lower than expected, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has solicited public opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)", proposing a capacity replacement ratio of no less than 1.5:1 for iron - making and steel - making in each province [8]. - Likely Negative Factors: The steel market has failed to meet peak - season expectations, with a significant decline in steel mill profitability and increasing negative feedback pressure, leading to a continuous decline in hot - metal production; Tangshan plans to implement a 30% blast - furnace production restriction for four days from October 27 - 31, reducing the demand for ferroalloys; from January to September, national real - estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, and various real - estate indicators such as construction area, new construction area, sales area, and sales volume also showed significant declines [8]. Daily Data - Silicon Iron: The daily data shows changes in basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts compared to previous days and weeks [9]. - Silicon Manganese: Similar to silicon iron, the daily data includes basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts, with corresponding changes [10][11]. Seasonal Charts - The report provides multiple seasonal charts, including those for silicon iron and silicon manganese market prices, basis, futures spreads, and inventory, which can help analyze the historical patterns and trends of these factors [12][14][25][35]
铁合金产业风险管理日报-20251028
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-28 10:18