基金经理研究系列报告之八十四:中欧基金蓝小康:价值投资坚守者,确定性收益中寻求投资效率最大化
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-28 10:13
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Value style outperforms growth style and the overall market in the long - term, with better return - risk ratios. Since 2012 (as of 2025/10/24), the performance of Guozheng Value R significantly led Guozheng Growth R and Wind All - A. It also has stronger performance in terms of risk, with better indicators such as return, volatility, and maximum drawdown [2][7]. - The number of value - style fund products in the market is relatively scarce. Among over 1700 active equity fund managers, only 11 managers' products meet the definition of value - style funds, and 4 of them are financial and real - estate funds [2][16]. - Lan Xiaokang of China Europe Fund adheres to value investment and aims to maximize investment efficiency in certain returns. His China Europe Dividend Optimized Enjoyment has achieved a 244.42% performance since 2019 (as of 2025/10/24), leading among value - style products [2]. - China Europe Dividend Optimized Enjoyment has outstanding characteristics, including focusing on value - style sectors with timely rotation, having a high return - risk ratio, and generating excess returns mainly through stock - picking [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Value Style Fund Product Investment Value Overview 3.1.1 Value Style Performance: Better Return - Risk Ratio in the Long - Term - Long - term performance: Since 2012 (as of 2025/10/24), Guozheng Value R significantly outperformed Guozheng Growth R and Wind All - A, indicating that the value style has stronger historical performance over a long period [7]. - Return stability: From 2017 to 2025/10/24, the one - year rolling return win - rate of Guozheng Value R was 70.77%, higher than Guozheng Growth R's 56.50%, showing that the value style is more stable in obtaining returns [9]. - Risk performance: In different time periods (since 2012, 2017, and 2019), Guozheng Value R was superior to Guozheng Growth R in terms of return, volatility, maximum drawdown, and return - risk ratio [12]. 3.1.2 Relatively Scarce Value - Style Fund Products in the Market - Definition of value - style funds: Funds with an average weighted value factor exposure of over 70% in each period and a minimum value not lower than 50% are defined as value - style funds. After excluding newly - established products or those managed by fund managers after 2019, only 11 out of over 1700 active equity fund managers' products met the criteria, and 4 of them were financial and real - estate theme funds [16]. - Reasons for scarcity: Subjective reasons of fund managers, scale pressure on funds, and the考核 system of fund management companies [17][19]. 3.2 China Europe Fund's Lan Xiaokang - A Value Investment Adherent Seeking Maximum Investment Efficiency in Certain Returns 3.2.1 Background: Years of Research and Management Experience, with Historical Performance Leading the CSI 300 - Lan Xiaokang has a Ph.D. from the Institute of Chemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences. He has worked as a researcher in Rixin Securities and Xinhua Fund, and now serves as the head of the value strategy group at China Europe Fund. He has about 8.5 years of investment management experience and currently manages 4 products with a total scale of 24.809 billion yuan [2][20]. - His fund manager index has historically outperformed the CSI 300, especially since 2021 [20]. 3.2.2 Investment Framework: Seeking Maximum Investment Efficiency on the Premise of Safety - Top - down, he focuses on macro and long - term changes, determines core contradictions, and anchors investment directions. Bottom - up, he studies industry and stock fundamentals and identifies undervalued and high - quality stocks [23]. - He uses multiple investment strategies, such as long - term, dividend, stable - return, hedging, and trend - reversal strategies, to diversify sources of excess returns and improve investment efficiency [23]. 3.2.3 Representative Product: China Europe Dividend Optimized Enjoyment - Lan Xiaokang currently manages 4 products, with China Europe Dividend Optimized Enjoyment being the one he has managed the longest. Since 2018/4, the return has reached 169.82%, significantly exceeding its performance benchmark [24][27]. 3.3 Analysis of the Characteristics of China Europe Dividend Optimized Enjoyment 3.3.1 Performance: Leading in Both Returns and Return - Risk Ratios - Since being managed by Lan Xiaokang (as of 2025/10/24), the cumulative return of China Europe Dividend Optimized Enjoyment reached 169.82%, significantly leading the benchmark. The relative return curve shows small drawdowns and stable outperformance [29]. - From 2019 to 2025/10/24, in 27 quarters, the fund had a positive return in 20 quarters, with a win - rate of 74.1%. Compared with the benchmark and Guozheng Value R, the relative return win - rates were 77.8% and 74.1% respectively, with average quarterly excess returns of 3.82% and 2.58% [30]. - Since 2019, the annualized return of the fund was 19.88%, in the top 12% of similar products, and the annualized volatility was 19.98%, in the lower 25% of similar products. Its Sharpe and Calmar ratios were in the top 5% and 1.5% of all active equity products [35]. 3.3.2 Industry Distribution: Timely Rotation with Good Results - The fund focuses on value - style sectors such as household appliances, non - ferrous metals, non - bank finance, banks, real estate, and petroleum and petrochemicals, and conducts timely rotation among these sectors [39]. - Industry rotation operations have brought significant excess returns. For example, recent major rotations mostly contributed positive excess returns [43]. 3.3.3 Positioning Characteristics: Moderate Stock Concentration and Timely Allocation of Hong Kong Stocks - Stock positions are moderately concentrated, with the top ten holdings accounting for 40% - 60% and the top thirty holdings accounting for over 90% in most periods. The turnover rate is relatively low, mostly around 1.5 times [48]. - The fund mainly focuses on medium - and large - cap stocks, with less than 10% of positions in small - cap stocks (market value below 10 billion yuan) in most periods. It has gradually increased its allocation to Hong Kong stocks since 2023, with nearly 50% of stock positions in Hong Kong stocks as of the 2025 semi - annual report [50]. 3.3.4 Return Breakdown: Significant Contribution from Stock - Picking - Using the Brinson model, the fund's returns are mainly from stock - picking, with trading also contributing moderately. Stock - picking has provided stable excess returns with relatively small historical drawdowns [53]. - In terms of sectors, the absolute returns come from multiple sectors, with the cyclical sector contributing more, and the consumer sector contributing significantly before 2021. The cyclical and financial real - estate sectors have significant relative returns [58]. 3.3.5 Product Characteristic Summary - The fund focuses on value - style sectors and achieves good results through timely rotation, with a high return - risk ratio. Stock - picking is the main source of excess returns, mainly from cyclical, financial real - estate, and innovation sectors [63]. 3.4 Fund Manager's Capability Circle: Outstanding Hidden Trading and Industry Rotation Abilities - Industry and stock concentration: The fund manager distributes positions moderately across industries and moderately concentrates on stocks. - Stock - selection ability: Since 2020, the fund has achieved median or above - median stock - selection returns in most reporting periods, ranking in the top 20% of similar products. - Hidden trading ability: Although trading operations are infrequent, they can still bring some excess returns, ranking in the top 10% of similar products. - Industry rotation ability: Industry rotation operations contribute positive excess returns, with most reporting periods leading the median of similar products, ranking in the top 15% of similar products. - Investment ability in both up and down markets: The fund can seize some opportunities in rising markets and has good defensive capabilities in falling markets [65][66].