Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-28 10:26Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The Shanghai lead market is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger next week, but the strength is limited. It is recommended to short at high prices and arrange short positions for lead prices when the price is high. If the Fed's interest rate cut next week falls short of expectations, the market may form a negative feedback [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,355 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 2,023.5 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars. The 12 - 01 month contract spread of Shanghai lead was - 10 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The Shanghai lead open interest was 123,029 lots, down 6,161 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was 1,110 lots, up 1,751 lots. The Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 23,097 tons, up 49 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 36,333 tons, down 5,368 tons; the LME lead inventory was 232,375 tons, down 3,000 tons [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network 1 lead was 17,225 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the spot price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market 1 lead was 17,340 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract was - 130 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 33.8 US dollars/ton, up 2.84 US dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan was 16,671 yuan, up 275 yuan. The price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 17,140 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead was 22,000 tons, up 45,500 tons. The number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 35.56%, down 2.32 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead was 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 82.65%, up 1.01 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 39,600 tons, up 500 tons. The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 90 US dollars/kiloton, unchanged. The ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was - 2,500 tons, up 3,100 tons. The global lead ore output was 383,300 tons, up 3,400 tons. The lead ore import volume was 150,600 tons, up 15,800 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume was 1,507.92 tons, down 312.63 tons. The refined lead export volume was 1,486.13 tons, down 1,266.09 tons. The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 380 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of waste batteries in the market was 10,016.07 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries was 45,696,000, down 3,984,000. The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources was 2,022.6 points, down 20.23 points. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 19,450 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The monthly automobile output was 3.227 million, up 474,600. The monthly new - energy vehicle output was 1.58 million, up 247,000 [2]. Industry News - Amazon plans to lay off up to 30,000 people. The UK will stop disclosing the identities of short - sellers in the stock market. Zelensky said that a cease - fire plan will be formulated with allies within seven to ten days. Qualcomm launched an AI chip to compete with AMD and NVIDIA. The US extended the trade negotiation deadline by several weeks. The Philippine central bank official said that the gold reserve is "excessive" and a part should be sold for profit. OPEC+ oil - producing countries tend to implement a small - scale production increase again in December at the Sunday meeting [2]. View Summary - On the supply side, for primary lead, although some smelters plan to boost annual production and sales, there are many overhauls from October to November, so the output is expected to increase slightly. For recycled lead, the smelters affected by Document No. 770 are gradually resuming production, but the raw material inventory is low, and the waste transportation of recycled lead enterprises is affected by environmental protection requirements in the heating season in the north, so the output recovery is limited, and the lead ingot spot will remain tight in the short term. On the demand side, after the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has rebounded significantly. Entering the traditional consumption season, the replacement market of automobiles and electric bicycles supports the demand for lead. Some leading battery enterprises have good orders and expand energy - storage business, which will further increase the demand for lead. However, since September, the Shanghai - London ratio of lead ingots has gradually expanded, and the export of Chinese lead - acid batteries is under pressure due to tariffs, which will suppress the demand growth to some extent. The inventory has been decreasing, but with the expected increase in imported lead arrivals and the possible increase in recycled lead output, the inventory may change next week. If the inventory decline slows down, it will resist price increases [2].