Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The recent increase in costs and the improvement in the macro - environment have driven the rebound of plastics, but plastics lack the internal impetus to rise. It is expected that plastics will mainly show a weak and volatile trend [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 28, new maintenance devices such as Zhongyuan Petrochemical's full - density were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 86.5%, which is at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.83 percentage points to 45.75% month - on - month. The agricultural film has entered the peak season, but the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil has rebounded significantly from a low level. New production capacities have been put into operation, and the plastic operating rate has slightly decreased. Although the demand for agricultural film is expected to increase, the peak - season effect is not as expected, and there is no actual anti - involution policy in the plastic industry. [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2601 contract decreased in position, fluctuated and declined. The lowest price was 6,975 yuan/ton, the highest was 7,035 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,985 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.20%. The position decreased by 4,375 lots to 519,487 lots [2]. - Spot: The PE spot market showed a mixed trend, with the price change ranging from - 50 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,910 - 7,470 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9,070 - 9,930 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7,260 - 8,090 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On October 28, new maintenance devices such as Zhongyuan Petrochemical's full - density were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 86.5%, which is at a neutral level [4]. - Demand: As of the week of October 24, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.83 percentage points to 45.75% month - on - month. The agricultural film has entered the peak season, but the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Inventory: On Tuesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 720,000 tons week - on - week, 35,000 tons lower than the same period last year, and is currently at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 01 contract dropped to 64 US dollars/barrel, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 755 US dollars/ton month - on - month, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 765 US dollars/ton month - on - month [4].
塑料日报：震荡下行-20251028
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-10-28 10:25