冠通期货研究报告：基本面托底，宏观氛围驱动

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The copper price is still strong due to the positive attitude from the Sino - US talks, the upcoming US interest - rate cut meeting this week, and the continuous tight situation in the copper mine on the fundamental side, which may widen the copper supply gap [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - China's industrial enterprise profits in September 2025 increased by 21.6% year - on - year, the fastest growth rate in nearly two years. The US "no longer considers" imposing 100% tariffs on China, and the macro - optimistic sentiment and positive expectations for Chinese demand have pushed up the copper price to a new high [1] - Incidents or shutdowns at mines in Indonesia, Chile, and Congo have led to a global shortage of copper concentrate supply. Domestic copper mine inventories have been continuously decreasing, and high TC/RC fees are the main driving force for the rise in copper prices [1] - There is a probability that copper production will continue to decline in November 2025. There are currently 5 smelters with maintenance plans, and the supply of anode plates will remain tight, lacking raw materials for copper smelting [1] - High copper prices have suppressed downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and social copper inventories have increased moderately recently. Attention should be paid to whether the inventory accumulation trend will continue [1] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened high and moved higher but declined during the day [1][4] - Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 60 yuan/ton, and in South China was 0 yuan/ton. On October 27, 2025, the LME official price was 11011 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 24 US dollars/ton [4] 3.3. Supply Side - As of October 27, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 42.6 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.45 cents/pound [8] 3.4. Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventory was 35,800 tons, a decrease of 1832 tons from the previous period. As of October 27, Shanghai bonded - area copper inventory was 110,900 tons, an increase of 600 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 136,000 tons, a decrease of 575 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 347,700 short tons, an increase of 463 short tons from the previous period [11]