国债期货日报-20251028

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Report's Core View - The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's bond - purchasing operations. With the central bank resuming treasury bond trading operations, the bond market may have further upward momentum, and long - bond holders can partially take profits and keep some positions for potential further gains [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Conditions - On Tuesday, all varieties of treasury bond futures opened higher, fluctuated after a rally, and closed up across the board. The end - of - month capital market remained tight, with DR001 at around 1.47%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 475.3 billion yuan, with a net injection of 315.8 billion yuan [1] - The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting announcements influenced the bond market. After the central bank governor announced the resumption of treasury bond trading operations, the spot - bond yields dropped sharply after 5 p.m. yesterday. Today, the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds partially recovered from yesterday's decline, while those of other maturities continued to fall [2] 2. Important News - Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng stated that the bond market is operating well, and the central bank will resume open - market treasury bond trading operations, explore a mechanism to provide liquidity to non - banking institutions in specific situations, and is studying a one - time personal credit relief policy [2] - Financial Regulatory Administration Director Li Yunze said at the opening ceremony of the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting that efforts will be made to strengthen the capital supply for major projects and promote the expansion and upgrading of consumption [2] 3. Market Expectations - The market expects this round of bond purchases to be a combination of short - term and medium - to - long - term bonds. The central bank's recent liquidity injection methods and the resumption of treasury bond trading may mean that policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be postponed, but it does not prevent the improvement of market expectations [2] 4. Data Comparison | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 28 | 2025 - 10 - 27 | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.47 | 102.382 | 0.088 | | TF2512 | 105.905 | 105.735 | 0.17 | | T2512 | 108.425 | 108.145 | 0.28 | | TL2512 | 116.14 | 115.33 | 0.81 | | TS Contract Position (lots) | 78077 | 76175 | 1902 | | TF Contract Position (lots) | 162038 | 156966 | 5072 | | T Contract Position (lots) | 274231 | 263730 | 10501 | | TL Contract Position (lots) | 185933 | 179404 | 6529 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0023 | 0.0123 | - 0.0146 | | TF Basis (CTD) | 0.085 | - 0.0168 | 0.1018 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.1987 | 0.0235 | 0.1752 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.3712 | 0.2081 | 0.1631 | | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (lots) | 39423 | 29975 | 9448 | | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (lots) | 67869 | 58124 | 9745 | | T Main Contract Trading Volume (lots) | 75068 | 75942 | - 874 | | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (lots) | 123331 | 113706 | 9625 | [3]