南华期货生猪企业风险管理日报-20251028

Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Daily Report on Risk Management of Pig Enterprises - Date: October 28, 2025 - Analyst: Dai Hongxu (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0021819) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Policy disturbances may affect the long - term supply of pigs, and a long - term strategic bullish view is possible, but the short - to - medium - term situation is still based on fundamentals. The policy bottom has emerged, but the market bottom may take a production cycle to form. Currently, the supply exceeds demand, and short - term pig prices dropped rapidly due to concentrated slaughter during the double festivals. With the arrival of the peak season, demand will improve, and there may be a structural shortage of large pigs, supporting peak - season prices [3] 3. Key Points by Section 3.1 Pig Price Range Forecast - The predicted price range of the main contract is 11,000 - 13,500. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 24.72%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 76.74% [2] 3.2 Pig Enterprise Risk Management Strategy Suggestions 3.2.1 Inventory Management - For high product inventory and fear of inventory impairment, strategies include short - selling live pig futures according to inventory to lock in profits, selling call options when there is no suitable futures price, and buying out - of - the - money put options if not wanting to miss potential price increases. The recommended ratio for short - selling futures and selling call options is 10% [2] 3.2.2 Procurement Management - For future procurement plans and fear of price increases, strategies include buying long - term pig contracts according to the procurement plan to lock in costs, selling put options when there is no suitable futures price, and buying out - of - the - money call options if not wanting to lock in profits early and expecting lower costs [2] 3.3 Core Contradictions - Policy disturbances may affect long - term pig supply. The policy bottom has appeared, but the market bottom needs time. The current supply exceeds demand, and short - term price drops were due to concentrated slaughter. With the peak season, demand will improve, and large pigs may be in short supply [3] 3.4利多解读 (Likely Positive Factors) - Macro - sentiment improvement boosts market confidence; the standard - to - fat pig price spread is at a high level; there is a medium - to - long - term policy expectation of reducing production capacity; the second - fattening pen occupancy rate is decreasing, and with low pig prices and fattening costs, speculative second - fattening is entering the market; group farms are reducing slaughter [6] 3.5利空解读 (Likely Negative Factors) - The inventory of breeding sows is still high; the inventory of large - scale enterprises is at a three - year high; downstream terminal consumption is weak [6][7] 3.6 Pig Spot Prices - The national average spot price is 12.44 yuan/kg, up 0.28 yuan or 2.3%. Prices in different regions such as Henan, Hunan, Liaoning, Sichuan, and Guangdong also showed increases [9] 3.7 Pig Futures Prices - The closing prices of different futures contracts (01, 03, 05, 07, 09, 11) showed different changes, with some rising and some falling. For example, the 01 contract closed at 12,160 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan or 1.38%, while the 11 contract closed at 12,095 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 0.25% [10] 3.8 Pig Futures Spreads and Basis - Different futures spreads (e.g., LH01 - 03, LH03 - 05) and basis (e.g., Henan - 01 contract) showed various changes in price and percentage [17]