Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-28 10:19Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On Tuesday, the RB2601 contract rose and then pulled back. The central bank will improve the monetary policy framework, strengthen implementation and transmission, and improve long - term capital support policies. The weekly output of rebar increased with a capacity utilization rate of 45.39%, terminal demand increased, and inventory declined. Fed rate - cut expectations and production cuts in major steel - producing areas still support steel prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract shows a slowdown in the upward trend of DIFF and DEA, and the red column is shrinking. It is recommended to pay attention to the support around 3070, conduct short - term trading, and control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Categories 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,091 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the position was 1,930,357 lots, down 22,644 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 103,837 lots, up 8,267 lots. The RB1 - 5 contract spread was - 63 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan. The RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 147,361 tons, down 3,058 tons. The HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 214 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,300 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,320 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,140 yuan/ton, unchanged. The RB main contract basis was 209 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 70 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 796 yuan/wet ton, up 12 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,590 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,230 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Hebei Q235 billet was 2,980 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The 45 - port iron ore inventory was 144.2065 million tons, up 1.3895 million tons. The sample coking plant coke inventory was 373,700 tons, down 1,200 tons. The sample steel mill coke inventory was 6.3327 million tons, down 60,000 tons. The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace开工率 was 84.73%, down 1.23 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 89.92%, down 0.39 percentage points. The Tangshan billet inventory was 1.2873 million tons, up 4,800 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The sample steel mill rebar output was 2.0707 million tons, up 59,100 tons; the rebar capacity utilization rate was 45.39%, up 1.29 percentage points. The sample steel mill rebar inventory was 1.8463 million tons, down 100 tons; the 35 - city rebar social inventory was 4.3748 million tons, down 189,300 tons. The independent electric arc furnace steel mill开工率 was 67.71%, unchanged. The domestic crude steel output was 73.49 million tons, down 3.88 million tons. The Chinese rebar monthly output was 1.541 million tons, up 66,000 tons. The steel net export volume was 992,000 tons, up 91,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 92.78, down 0.27. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 0.50%, down 1.00 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 13.90%, down 1.00 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 1.10%, down 0.90 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.4858 billion square meters, down 54.71 million square meters. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 453.99 million square meters, down 55.98 million square meters. The commercial housing unsold area was 39.937 million square meters, up 2.92 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From January to September, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in the country was 5.3732 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. The total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 97.34 billion yuan. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited public opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)", stating that in key areas, the total steel production capacity should not be increased, and the transfer of steel production capacity from non - key areas to key areas and between different key areas is prohibited. The capacity replacement ratio for ironmaking and steelmaking in each province (autonomous region, municipality) should not be less than 1.5:1 [2]