瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20251028

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market may be in a stage of supply reduction and slight demand boost, with prices potentially supported. It is recommended to conduct light - position range - bound trading and control trading rhythm and risks [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum market may be in a stage of slight supply increase and strong consumption, with inventory depletion and positive expectations. The options market sentiment is bullish. It is also recommended for light - position range - bound trading and risk control [2]. - The cast aluminum market may be in a state of tight supply - demand balance, with inventory depletion and positive expectations. Similar light - position range - bound trading and risk control are advised [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Prices and Spreads: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21,140 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,817 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. The main - second - consecutive contract spread of Shanghai aluminum was - 60 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; that of alumina was - 42 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. - Positions and Inventories: The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 25,476 hands to 285,793 hands; those of alumina increased by 17,280 hands to 389,764 hands. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 3,850 tons to 469,275 tons; Shanghai aluminum inventory decreased by 3,860 tons to 118,168 tons. The electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 0.80 million tons to 57.60 million tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Prices: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 21,160 yuan/ton, unchanged; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,790 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 21,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Basis: The basis of casting aluminum alloy was 625 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was 20 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan. The basis of alumina was - 27 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and Utilization: The alumina production was 799.90 million tons, up 7.42 million tons; the capacity utilization rate was 88.27%, up 1.53 percentage points. The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 704.31 million tons, down 21.49 million tons [2]. - Trade: The export volume of alumina was 25 million tons, up 7 million tons; the import volume was 6 million tons, down 3.44 million tons. The import volume of aluminum scrap and waste was 155,414.40 tons, down 17,195.97 tons; the export volume was 68.54 tons, up 15.31 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Capacity and Production: The total capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged; the production of primary aluminum imports was 246,797.10 tons, up 31,034.96 tons; the export volume was 28,969.92 tons, up 3,365.58 tons. The production of aluminum products was 590 million tons, up 35.18 million tons [2]. - Operating Rates: The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum was 98.27%, up 0.16 percentage points; the operating rate of alumina was 85.98%, up 3.05 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - Production: The production of regenerated aluminum alloy ingots was 65.65 million tons, up 2.06 million tons; the production of aluminum alloy was 177.60 million tons, unchanged. The production of automobiles was 322.65 million vehicles, up 47.42 million vehicles [2]. - Index: The National Housing Prosperity Index was 92.78, down 0.27 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - Volatility and Ratio: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 9.47%, up 0.88 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 8.11%, up 0.34 percentage points. The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money was 12.96%, up 0.0099. The put - call ratio was 1.38, up 0.1726 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Automobile Industry: From January to September 2025, the production of automobiles was 24.05 million, a year - on - year increase of 11%. The revenue of the automobile industry was 7,823.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%; the cost was 6,886.7 billion yuan, an increase of 8.6%; the profit was 348.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [2]. - Industrial Profits: In September, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 21.6% year - on - year, 1.2 percentage points faster than in August [2]. - Consumer Goods: More than 76 million consumers purchased over 126 million household appliances through the trade - in program, and more than 81 million consumers bought over 88 million digital products. Over 12 million electric bicycles were replaced [2].