瑞达期货锰硅硅铁产业日报-20251028

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - On October 28, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5790, down 0.14%, and the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot was reported at 5580. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates again at the October 28 - 29 meeting. Fundamentally, inventory is rising rapidly, production at a high level is slightly falling, inventory has risen for three consecutive weeks, the port inventory of imported manganese ore at the raw material end has decreased by 930,000 tons, and the molten iron at the demand end is oscillating at a high level. The Inner Mongolia spot profit is - 115 yuan/ton and Ningxia spot profit is - 230 yuan/ton. The mainstream steel tender price in October is 5820 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 180 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K is below the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as an oscillating operation [2]. - On October 28, the ferrosilicon 2601 contract was reported at 5564, up 0.32%, and the Ningxia ferrosilicon spot was reported at 5260. In September, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 21.6% year - on - year, with a significant driving effect from high - tech manufacturing. In terms of supply and demand, manufacturers' production mostly maintains the normal state to deliver previous orders, most of the manufacturers' previous hedging, and the inventory is at a neutral level. The semi - coke price is stable, and the cost is supported in the short term. The Inner Mongolia spot profit is - 460 yuan/ton and Ningxia spot profit is - 410 yuan/ton. The tender price of HBIS 75B ferrosilicon in September was 5800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton compared with the previous round. Technically, the daily K is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as an oscillating operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价为5790元/吨，环比下降12元；SF主力合约收盘价为5564元/吨，环比持平。SM期货合约持仓量为528,804手，环比下降1064手；SF期货合约持仓量为340,627手，环比下降4689手。锰硅前20名净持仓为 - 58,605手，环比增加1360手；硅铁前20名净持仓为 - 29,139手，环比下降2233手。SM5 - 1月合约价差为38元/吨，环比下降2元；SF5 - 1月合约价差为78元/吨，环比增加10元。SM仓单为38,603张，环比下降5424张；SF仓单为8,675张，环比下降2040张 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - 内蒙古锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5580元/吨，贵州锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5600元/吨，云南锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5600元/吨，价格均环比持平。内蒙古硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5300元/吨，青海硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5160元/吨，宁夏硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5260元/吨，价格均环比持平。锰硅指数均值为5641元/吨，环比增加1元；SF主力合约基差为 - 304元/吨，环比持平；SM主力合约基差为 - 210元/吨，环比增加12元 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - 南非矿Mn38块天津港价格为24元/吨度，环比持平；硅石（98%西北）价格为210元/吨，环比持平。内蒙古乌海二级冶金焦价格为1200元/吨，环比增加50元；兰炭（中料神木）价格为810元/吨，环比持平。锰矿港口库存为436.4万吨，环比下降9.3万吨 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - 锰硅企业开工率为43.04%，环比下降0.24%；硅铁企业开工率为35.56%，环比增加0.08%。锰硅供应为207,410吨，环比下降1400吨；硅铁供应为114,100吨，环比增加1300吨。锰硅厂家库存为293,000吨，环比增加30,500吨；硅铁厂家库存为66,560吨，环比下降2520吨。锰硅全国钢厂库存为15.93天，环比增加0.95天；硅铁全国钢厂库存为15.52天，环比增加0.85天。五大钢种锰硅需求为122,683吨，环比增加1570吨；五大钢种硅铁需求为19,935.9吨，环比增加363.38吨 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为84.73%，环比增加0.48%；247家钢厂高炉产能利用率为89.92%，环比下降0.39%。粗钢产量为7349.01万吨，环比下降387.84万吨 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - 焦炭第二轮提涨全面落地，山东、河北主流钢厂发函对焦炭采购价上调，湿熄涨幅50元/吨，干熄涨幅55元/吨，10月27日0时起执行。国际货币基金组织（IMF）最新预测显示，美国政府债务负担率到2030年将达到143.4%，本世纪首次超过意大利和希腊。10月27日，国务院总理李强在马来西亚吉隆坡出席第五次《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》领导人会议。美国总统特朗普称，俄罗斯总统普京应结束乌克兰战争，而不是试射核导弹，并表示美国在俄罗斯海岸附近部署了一艘核潜艇 [2].