铁合金周报20251028：供给持续过剩，铁合金区间震荡-20251028

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The silicon manganese market will continue to fluctuate within a range in the short term, with cost support and high inventory pressure coexisting, limiting the upside potential of prices. Future focus should be on the release of new production capacity in the north and the rhythm of production cuts in the south [7]. - The silicon ferro market is in a stalemate between cost support and weak demand. Short - term prices are resilient due to macro - sentiment but have limited upside potential. Future focus should be on changes in production in major producing areas and terminal demand, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [10]. Summary by Directory Part One: Market Viewpoints Silicon Manganese - Price: As of October 24, the prices of silicon manganese 6517 in most major producing areas remained stable, with a slight decline in Ningxia [4]. - Cost and Profit: Costs in various regions generally decreased or remained stable, with profit losses showing differentiation. The overall profitability was still poor but with local improvements [4]. - Supply: As of October 24, the operating rate and output of silicon manganese enterprises continued to decline, and the supply pressure continued to ease [4]. - Demand: As of October 24, the daily output of molten iron decreased slightly, the blast furnace operating rate increased slightly, and the weekly demand for silicon manganese in the five major steel products increased [5]. - Inventory: Factory - end inventory continued to increase, especially in Ningxia. The inventory of steel mills decreased slightly but remained at a medium - high level overall [5]. - Manganese Ore Supply and Inventory: The port inventory of manganese ore increased, with significant changes in the inventory of different types of manganese ore at different ports [6]. - Viewpoint: The silicon manganese market continued to oscillate last week. Supply pressure eased, but high - inventory limited price increases. Demand was acceptable, and cost support was enhanced. Overall, it will continue to fluctuate within a range in the short term [7]. Silicon Ferro - Price: As of October 24, the prices of silicon ferro 72 in major producing areas generally increased, and market sentiment improved [8]. - Cost and Profit: The cost increased overall, and profit performance was differentiated, with losses deepening in some areas [8]. - Supply: As of October 24, the operating rate and output in major producing areas increased slightly, and the supply pressure remained high [8]. - Demand: Steel mills' procurement of silicon ferro increased slightly, but it was still in a "peak - season without peak" state. Non - steel demand was weak [9]. - Inventory: Enterprise - end inventory decreased, with significant destocking in Inner Mongolia, while steel - mill inventory increased slightly [9]. - Blue Coke Supply and Inventory: The price of blue coke increased, supply recovered slightly, and inventory accumulated [9]. - Viewpoint: The silicon ferro market showed a slightly stronger oscillating pattern last week. Supply pressure remained high, costs increased, demand was weak, and inventory showed different trends at the enterprise and steel - mill ends. It will remain in a stalemate and fluctuate within a range in the short term [10]. Part Two: Silicon Manganese Supply - Demand Tracking - Price Spread Tracking: Multiple price spreads of silicon manganese contracts are presented, including 01 - contract basis, 1 - 5 spread, etc., with historical data from 2021 - 2025 [14][19]. - Spot Price: The spot prices of silicon manganese in different regions are provided, and the port prices of manganese ore remained firm [26][31]. - Port Inventory: The port inventory of manganese ore is tracked, with a significant decline in the inventory of South African ore in Qinzhou Port [46]. - Enterprise Operating Rate and Output: The operating rate and daily output of 187 sample silicon manganese enterprises are shown [55]. - Steel - Mill Demand: The daily output of molten iron in 247 steel mills and the demand for silicon manganese in the five major steel products are presented [58]. - Inventory: The inventory of silicon manganese in sample enterprises in different regions and the inventory - available days of steel mills are tracked [62][66]. Part Three: Silicon Ferro Supply - Demand Tracking - Price Spread Tracking: Multiple price spreads of silicon ferro contracts are presented, including 01 - contract basis, 5 - 9 spread, etc., with historical data from 2021 - 2025 [70][75]. - Spot Price: The spot prices of silicon ferro in different regions increased [79]. - Cost Factors: The spot price of blue coke continued to rise, and the electricity prices in Qinghai and Ningxia decreased [84]. - Enterprise Operating Rate and Output: The operating rate and daily output of 136 independent silicon ferro enterprises are shown [94]. - Demand: The weekly demand for silicon ferro in the five major steel products and the monthly output of crude steel are presented [96]. - Inventory: The inventory of silicon ferro in sample enterprises and the inventory - available days of steel mills are tracked [104].