玉米和淀粉10月报-20251028

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Internationally, the new - season supply of global corn is loose. The production of US corn reaches a new high, and it will be in a long - term bottom - oscillating state. Brazilian corn has a good harvest, and its exports are higher than the same period last year [10][11][20]. - Domestically, the production of new - season corn increases, and the planting cost decreases. However, there is significant selling pressure in the Northeast. Feed demand is growing, and corn has a high cost - performance ratio. Deep - processing of corn starts to make profits, and the operating rate rebounds. The inventories of north - south ports are starting to rise, but the corn inventory in the north port is still low. Corn and starch will mainly fluctuate within a certain range in the future [27][32][55][73][78]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In October, the USDA report was not released. The yield per unit of US corn might continue to be lowered, but its production reached a new high, and it oscillated narrowly around 420 cents per bushel. In October, corn in Northeast and North China was concentrated on the market, and the spot price of corn dropped significantly. The purchase price at the north port fell to 2,070 yuan per ton and then rebounded to 2,120 yuan per ton in late October. The downstream demand for corn starch was still weak, and the starch inventory was at a historical high. However, due to the large drop in corn prices, the profit of starch enterprises was good, and the operating rate increased. The 01 - contract corn oscillated downward, and the price difference between corn and starch widened [4]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Internationally, the yield per unit of US corn might continue to be lowered later, and the 12 - contract of US corn had strong support at 400 cents per bushel. However, its production was at a high level, and the expected rebound height was limited. It would be in a long - term bottom - oscillating state. Domestically, a large amount of corn in Jilin would be on the market in November, and there was still room for the spot price of corn to fall. Considering the low inventories of traders and downstream enterprises and the possible reluctance of farmers to sell, the purchase price at the north port might have support at 2,050 yuan per ton. The 01 - contract corn might have strong support around 2,090 yuan. For starch, due to the stable price of by - products, deep - processing would still make profits after a large amount of new - season corn was on the market. However, considering the weak downstream demand and high inventory, the profit of starch enterprises was expected to shrink, and the 01 - contract starch was expected to oscillate narrowly. The price difference between corn and starch on the futures market might shrink [5]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral trading: Go long on US corn with a light position around 400 cents per bushel. For the 01 - contract corn, conduct short - term long operations between 2,090 - 2,150 yuan, and for the 05 - contract, conduct short - term long operations between 2,190 - 2,250 yuan. - Arbitrage: Narrow the price difference between the 01 - contract corn and starch when it is between 270 - 320 yuan. - Options: Sell corn put options (c2601 - P - 2100) when the futures price falls to a low point [6]. 3.2 Second Part: International Corn Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Global Corn New - Season Supply is Loose - The USDA monthly data was not released in October, so the September report was used as a benchmark. The September USDA report showed a loose supply. In September 2025, the global corn production decreased month - on - month but increased significantly year - on - year, and consumption increased. The expected global corn production in the 25/26 season was 1.287 billion tons, slightly lower than the previous month's 1.288 billion tons but higher than the previous year's 1.223 billion tons, with a year - on - year increase of 57.67 million tons. The total domestic consumption was 1.281 billion tons, higher than the previous year's 1.249 billion tons. The expected ending inventory was 281 million tons, lower than the previous year's 284 million tons, and the stock - to - use ratio was 21.97% [10]. 3.2.2 US Corn Production Reaches a New High, Domestic Ethanol Production Will Still Increase, and US Corn Oscillates at the Bottom - In the September report, the new - season area of US corn was revised up month - on - month, and the yield per unit was lowered. The area of US corn in the 25/26 season was about 98.7 million acres, higher than 97.3 million acres in August and much higher than 90.6 million acres last year. The yield per unit of US corn might continue to be lowered later, and the 12 - contract of US corn would oscillate at the bottom. The current ethanol production of US corn was at a high level, and the fuel ethanol inventory continued to decline. The net short position of US corn was also decreasing. As of September 23, the net short position of US corn was - 51,000 lots, and the 12 - contract of US corn was expected to have strong support around 400 cents per bushel [11][13]. 3.2.3 Brazilian Corn Has a Good Harvest, and Exports are Higher than the Same Period Last Year - The exports of Brazil's second - crop corn started to be higher than last year. In September, the exports were 6.98 million tons, and from January to September 2025, the cumulative exports of Brazil were 23.95 million tons, higher than 23.62 million tons in the same period last year. As of October 24, the import cost in December was 2,152 yuan per ton, and the import profit was 158 yuan per ton [20][22]. 3.3 Third Part: Domestic Corn Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 New - Season Production Increases and Planting Cost Decreases, with Significant Selling Pressure in the Northeast - Currently, there is significant selling pressure on corn in the Northeast, and the spot price of corn oscillates at the bottom. In October, the main selling pressure came from the concentrated listing of farm - produced corn in Heilongjiang, corn in Liaoning, and corn in North China. The purchase price at the north port fell to a low of 2,070 yuan per ton. From mid - October to the end of October, due to the fact that a large amount of corn in Jilin was not on the market, the spot price of corn rebounded. However, from the end of October to early November, with the concentrated listing of corn in Jilin and North China, the spot price of corn is expected to fall again, and the purchase price may reach a low of around 2,050 yuan per ton in the short term. Since the inventories of traders, downstream feed enterprises, and deep - processing enterprises are low, there is an intention to build inventories. It is expected that the decline of corn in Jilin is limited, and the purchase price at the north port has support at 2,050 yuan per ton in the short term. In the 25/26 season, the land rent decreased, and the yield per unit increased, resulting in a significant increase in the national production. It is expected that the national corn production will increase by 11 - 12 million tons [26][27]. 3.3.2 Feed Demand Increases, and Corn Has a High Cost - Performance Ratio - Feed demand continues to grow. According to data from the Feed Industry Association, the feed production in September was 30.36 million tons, and the cumulative production from January to September was 246.53 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the feed production in September was 31.29 million tons, and the cumulative production from January to September was 250.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. The profit of pig farming continues to decline, but the pig inventory is higher than the same period last year. As of October 23, the self - breeding and self - raising profit per pig was - 149 yuan, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 279 yuan. The inventory of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms in September was 36.85 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.44% and a year - on - year increase of 5.29%. The profit of white - feather broilers is still in the red, but the inventory of laying hens is still high. It is expected that feed demand will continue to increase in November [32]. 3.3.3 Deep - Processing of Corn Starts to Make Profits, and the Operating Rate Rebounds - In October 2025, the spot price of corn dropped significantly, and the price of by - products was relatively stable. Starch enterprises have started to make profits, and the operating rate has increased. However, the downstream demand is still weak, and the starch inventory is still at a historical high. As of October 22, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises was 2.622 million tons, higher than 2.12 million tons in the same period last month but lower than 3.03 million tons in the same period last year. The operating rate of starch enterprises continued to rebound, reaching 55.62% as of October 22. The starch inventory is higher than last year, and the profit of starch enterprises has increased. It is expected that in November, with the continuous loose supply of new - season corn, the spot price of corn still has room to fall, and the profit of the starch industry will remain high. The downstream demand for starch is still weak, and the increase in the import volume of cassava starch will suppress the demand for corn starch [55][56]. 3.3.4 North - South Port Inventories Start to Rise, and the Corn Inventory in the North Port is Low - In October, the corn inventory in the north port started to rise, and the grain inventory in the south port also increased, but the corn inventory in the north port was still at a low level. As of October 17, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was 959,000 tons, a decrease of 513,000 tons compared with the same period last year. It is expected that in November, due to the significant increase in the shipping volume, the inventory accumulation in the north port may be relatively slow. The domestic and foreign trade inventories of Guangdong Port and the inventories of imported sorghum and barley have increased, and the grain inventory is higher than the same period last year. With the successive listing of new - season corn, the inventories of north - south ports will continue to accumulate in November [73]. 3.3.5 Trading Logic of Corn and Starch - In October 2025, with the concentrated listing of corn, the spot price of corn dropped significantly. From the end of October to early November, there will still be selling pressure on corn, and the spot price is expected to fall, but there may be a rebound in mid - November. For starch, it is expected that starch enterprises will still make profits in November, but the profit margin will be lower than last year. The 01 - contract corn is likely to fluctuate between 2,090 - 2,150 yuan, and the 05 - contract is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 2,200 - 2,250 yuan. The price difference between corn and starch may fluctuate between 270 - 320 yuan [78]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation 3.4.1 Corn - In October, Sino - US relations eased. The yield per unit of US corn may be lowered, and its price is far lower than the planting cost. It is expected that the 12 - contract of US corn has support at 400 cents per bushel, but considering that its production is still at a new high, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the 25/26 season. For domestic corn, due to the influence of rainfall in North China, the mildew rate of corn is high, and the selling pressure in North China is still significant in early November. From the end of October to early November, with the concentrated listing of corn in Jilin, the spot price of corn will still fall, but it is expected that the purchase price of 2,050 yuan per ton has strong support. In mid - November, the selling pressure in Jilin will ease, and corn prices will rebound slightly. It is expected that the purchase price at the north port will fluctuate between 2,050 - 2,130 yuan in November, the 01 - contract futures will fluctuate between 2,080 - 2,150 yuan, and the 05 - contract corn will fluctuate between 2,190 - 2,260 yuan [84][85]. 3.4.2 Starch - Due to the significant drop in the spot price of corn and the stable price of by - products, the profit of starch enterprises is good. However, the demand for corn starch is still weak, the inventory is at a high level in the past few years, and the import volume of cassava is high. After a large amount of new - season corn is on the market, the operating rate of deep - processing will increase, and it is difficult to reduce the starch inventory. The supply of deep - processing corn in North China will be sufficient, the operating rate will remain high, and the corn price will be relatively low. The profit of starch enterprises will remain high in November. It is expected that the bottom price of starch in North China is around 2,650 yuan per ton, and in the Northeast, it is around 2,400 yuan per ton. The 01 - contract starch will continue to oscillate at the bottom, and the price difference between the 01 - contract corn and starch is expected to fluctuate between 270 - 320 yuan [85]. 3.4.3 Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Go long on US corn with a light position around 400 cents per bushel. For the 01 - contract corn, conduct short - term long operations between 2,090 - 2,150 yuan. For the 05 - contract corn, conduct short - term long operations between 2,190 - 2,250 yuan. - Arbitrage: Operate the price difference between the 01 - contract corn and starch when it is between 270 - 320 yuan. - Options: Sell c2601 - P - 2100 options after the futures price falls [86].