Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - Short - term, weak market conditions suppress the upward momentum of the oil market, and the short - term market will run weakly. Wait for the final US energy policy in November to see if it can boost the oil market and further news about Indonesia's B50 plan. Strategy: stay on the sidelines. There may be a bottom - fishing opportunity for palm oil after it stabilizes [1][2]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestion 1.1 Core Contradiction - Palm oil: In October, Malaysian palm oil production increased, breaking the previous expectation of an early entry into the production - reduction season, with a production increase of over 10%. In Indonesia, the B50 plan faces uncertainties, and the future demand for palm oil is in doubt. However, due to the transfer of plantation ownership, production may be limited, and the B40 plan at the end of the year supports the price [1]. - Soybean oil: The US biodiesel policy is unclear. The US government shutdown has disrupted the acquisition of key agricultural data. The relatively optimistic progress of Sino - US trade talks boosts US soybeans, making soybean oil relatively resistant to decline [1]. - Domestic market: The overall supply of the three major domestic oils is sufficient and under short - term pressure. After the Sino - US and Sino - Canadian relations ease, the import of oilseeds may increase, alleviating supply concerns [2]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Suggestion - Trend judgment: Short - term weak adjustment, medium - term wide - range oscillation. - Price range: P2601 oscillates between [8800 - 9700], Y2601 between [8000 - 8500], and OI between [9500 - 10300]. - Technical analysis: Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading. - Basis strategy: Consider using accumulated options to reduce basis pricing risks. - Spread strategy: For P1 - 5, consider a reverse spread strategy. - Hedging and arbitrage strategy: The spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil widens, and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil narrows [23]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestion - Price range prediction: Soybean oil: 8000 - 8700; rapeseed oil: 9500 - 10300; palm oil: 8800 - 9700. - Hedging strategy: Traders with high oil inventories can short soybean oil futures; refiners with low inventories can buy soybean oil futures; oil mills worried about excessive imports can short soybean oil futures [24]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Palm oil: Futures prices of different contracts declined, and the basis of Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil was - 240 yuan/ton. - Soybean oil: Futures prices of different contracts mostly rose, and the basis of Shandong first - grade soybean oil was 116 yuan/ton. - Rapeseed oil: Futures prices of different contracts declined, and the basis of East China rapeseed oil was 302 yuan/ton [25][26][27]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Three major Indonesian palm oil producers have reduced fertilizer use and maintenance, which may lower future production. A plantation's monthly fresh fruit bunch production has dropped significantly [30]. - Bearish information: On October 24, the commercial inventory of the three major domestic oils reached 261 million tons, at a high level in recent years. Sino - US trade consultations made initial progress. Multiple mining associations in Indonesia are requesting the cancellation of the B50 plan. Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased slightly in August, and production is expected to increase by 10% in 2025 [31]. - Spot trading information: The trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil declined, and rapeseed oil had almost no trading [32]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Domestic weekly inventory data, Malaysian palm oil high - frequency production and export data, progress of the US small refinery exemption re - allocation decision, progress of Sino - US trade negotiations, and US government information and USDA data [40]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: This week, there was more bearish information in the oil market, and the market continued to weaken. However, due to uncertainties such as the US energy policy and the approaching production - reduction season, the downward space is limited [39]. - Capital flow: In palm oil, the long and short positions are in a stalemate; in soybean oil, long positions increased significantly; in rapeseed oil, long positions increased slightly [39]. - Basis structure: The basis of the main oil contracts continued to bottom out, and the palm oil basis turned negative. - Spread structure: The oil market shows a Back structure, which has become shallower this week. The 1 - 5 spread has slightly recovered, and the concern about the far - month contracts has weakened [41]. - Price spread structure: This week, the spread between soybean oil and palm oil strengthened, the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil weakened slightly, and the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil changed little [49]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - This week, the POGO and BOHO spreads both declined, and the overall cost of bio - fuel production decreased slightly. The cost of palm - based biodiesel decreased to a limited extent, while the cost of US soybean - based biodiesel remained low [56]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. After a slight improvement in cost prices, they weakened again, and the sentiment of domestic buyers is expected to remain stable [58]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - In September, the decline in Malaysian palm oil production was less than expected, and the inventory exceeded expectations. In October, production increased month - on - month, breaking the previous expectation of an early entry into the production - reduction season. Pay attention to the inventory - reduction progress in the origin [61]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Projection - Palm oil: With weak demand and high costs, traders' purchasing willingness is low. During the production - reduction season at the end of the year, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is relatively limited. - Soybean oil: The arrival of soybeans from October to November is high, and the supply in the fourth quarter will be sufficient, but the supply pressure may weaken in December. - Rapeseed oil: The current domestic inventory is high, and demand is limited. However, the inventory may decrease in the fourth quarter, and there may be a supply shortage from the end of the year to the first quarter of next year if Sino - Canadian relations do not improve [63]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - In the short term, the inventory pressure of the three major oils is high, and demand is weak. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the market boost is limited, and overall terminal demand will remain weak [65].
油脂产业周报：利空消息打压盘面，油脂短线偏弱运行-20251028
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-28 11:24