粕类日报：供应利多继续体现，粕类整体反弹-20251028

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of the international soybean market remains relatively loose, with the US market showing a strong trend due to a significant increase in exports, while the Brazilian soybean market faces price pressure from the high - expected yield of new crops [4][5]. - The domestic supply and demand of soybean meal are relatively loose, with inventory pressure still present. Rapeseed meal inventory is at a relatively low level, but demand is also general, and prices lack obvious fluctuations [8]. - The recent strong performance of the US soybean futures is mainly driven by macro factors. Considering the fundamentals, the overall pressure is still relatively large, and the subsequent rebound space is expected to be limited [8]. - It is recommended to short the 05 contract, adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide straddles for options [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes Review - The US soybean futures continued to show a strong upward trend, mainly influenced by macro - level positives. The domestic soybean meal futures oscillated, with a smaller increase than that of US soybeans, and the soybean crushing profit continued to face significant downward pressure. Rapeseed meal futures showed a strong upward trend, mainly following the rebound of soybean meal [3]. - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed a downward trend. The inter - monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures increased, mainly affected by the repair of crushing profit and limited supply [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis International Market - The fundamentals of the US soybean market have changed little. The new - crop yield is expected to have a slight decrease in yield per unit, which provides some support for prices. However, in the absence of other positive factors, the upward space of the futures is limited [4]. - In South America, the supply - side influence has increased. Brazil's new - crop sowing has started, and the progress is fast, which is generally positive for the supply side. It is expected that the export volume will continue to increase significantly. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is relatively large, and recent crushing and exports have increased significantly [4]. Domestic Market - The domestic spot market is in a state of relatively loose supply and demand. The oil refinery operating rate continues to increase, with sufficient supply and increased pick - up volume, and the inventory remains at a high level. The market trading volume has decreased, and the wait - and - see sentiment has increased [6]. - As of October 24, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil refineries was 2.3674 million tons, the operating rate was 65.13%, the soybean inventory was 7.5129 million tons, a decrease of 174,100 tons or 2.26% from the previous week, and an increase of 1.9282 million tons or 34.53% year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.0546 million tons, an increase of 78,400 tons or 8.03% from the previous week, and an increase of 180 tons or 0.17% year - on - year [6]. - The demand for domestic rapeseed meal has gradually weakened recently. The oil refinery operating rate has decreased, the supply of rapeseed is relatively low, and the supply pressure still exists. It is expected that rapeseed meal will mainly oscillate [6]. 3.3 Macro - level Analysis - The market has recently been more affected by macro factors. The Sino - US negotiations have sent positive signals, causing the US soybean futures to rise significantly. After the short - term reaction to macro - level factors, the subsequent impact is expected to be relatively limited, and the market will focus more on fundamental changes [7]. 3.4 Logic Analysis - The futures are showing a strong upward trend, driven by the increase in cost. However, the US soybean futures are more positively affected and have a larger increase than soybean meal [8]. - Overall, the international soybean market supply is still relatively loose. The smooth progress of Brazil's new - crop sowing is expected to maintain a relatively high yield, with limited subsequent price support and obvious overall pressure [8]. - The inter - monthly spread of soybean meal futures decreased today, mainly reflecting the impact of macro factors, and the subsequent decline space is expected to be limited. The decline of rapeseed meal's inter - monthly spread is also affected by that of soybean meal, and there may still be pressure in the future under the general demand situation [8]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to short the 05 contract. - Arbitrage: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. - Options: Use the strategy of selling wide straddles (the views are for reference only and not as a basis for trading) [9].