为何10月以来股份制银行CD发力明显？

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [8] Core Insights - Since October, the issuance of certificates of deposit (CDs) by joint-stock banks has significantly increased, with a notable rise in pricing demands, particularly among joint-stock banks [2][14] - The NSFR (Net Stable Funding Ratio) for joint-stock banks may face pressure by the end of the year, primarily due to the trend of short-term deposits and a significant decline in credit growth [3][30] - There is a need for proactive measures to address the asset-liability gap pressure expected in early 2026, with a focus on issuing CDs to meet funding needs [4][31] - The usage rate of the备案额度 (recorded quota) for joint-stock banks is lagging behind previous years, indicating a potential need to issue short-term CDs to secure future quotas [5][41] - The expected central price for 1Y CDs is around 1.70%, influenced by the current monetary policy stance and the average cost of liabilities for banks [6][54] Summary by Sections 1. Increase in CD Issuance - The net financing of CDs by joint-stock banks reached 520.8 billion, the highest level for the same period since 2021 [14] - The issuance of CDs has shown a balanced approach between short and long terms, with significant net financing in 3M, 6M, and 1Y CDs [14][15] 2. NSFR Pressure - The NSFR for most joint-stock banks is between 105%-110%, which, while above the regulatory minimum, still requires careful management [3][19] - The trend of short-term deposits is worsening, leading to increased pressure on the NSFR [22][30] 3. Preparing for Asset-Liability Gaps - Anticipated credit growth in Q1 2026 may reach 100% of the total, necessitating early issuance of CDs to meet funding demands [4][33] - General deposit growth is expected to face challenges in early 2026 due to various factors, including the cancellation of manual interest compensation [36][38] 4. Slow Usage of Quota - As of October 27, the usage rate of the备案额度 for joint-stock banks was only 59.1%, significantly lower than in previous years [5][41] - Some banks may issue short-term CDs to occupy quota space and ensure stability in future applications [45][48] 5. Expected CD Rate - The average cost of liabilities for joint-stock banks is approximately 1.71%, with the expected rate for 1Y CDs around 1.70% [6][54] - The current monetary policy is expected to remain supportive, preventing significant increases in CD rates [52][54]