瑞达期货不锈钢产业日报-20251028

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On the raw material side, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply; the growth of nickel - iron production in Indonesia has slowed down, and domestic production has gradually declined. Recently, the price of nickel - iron has rebounded from a low level, strengthening the support of raw material costs [2]. - On the supply side, the production profit of steel mills has shrunk, but with the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season, the demand from infrastructure and real estate is gradually increasing, and the production schedule of stainless - steel mills has still increased [2]. - On the demand side, infrastructure construction in October is expected to speed up. Coupled with the positive fiscal investment policies in China, anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern. The market procurement demand is resilient, and the domestic inventory continues to decline [2]. - Technically, the position has decreased and the price has adjusted. Both long and short positions are trading cautiously. Attention should be paid to the resistance at 12,900. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan; the price difference between the November - December contracts is 5 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 14,766 lots, a decrease of 8,314 lots; the position of the main contract is 100,253 lots, a decrease of 14,871 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 73,896 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B rolled stainless steel (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the SS main contract is 320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron production is 21,700 metal tons, a decrease of 300 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, an increase of 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 1.0853 million tons, an increase of 211,200 tons [2]. - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 122,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 900 yuan; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 930 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2]. - The monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 million tons, an increase of 24,800 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 576,700 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons [2]. - The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, an increase of 55.9799 million square meters [2]. - The monthly production of large and medium - sized tractors is 26,200 units, an increase of 4,000 units; the monthly production of excavators is 31,600 units, an increase of 1,000 units; the monthly production of small tractors is 10,000 units, an increase of 1,000 units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Wang Yi had a phone call with US Secretary of State Rubio, hoping that both sides would work towards each other to prepare for high - level China - US interactions [2]. - From January to September, the profits of large - scale equipment manufacturing industries increased by 9.4% year - on - year, 6.2 percentage points higher than the average level of all large - scale industrial enterprises, driving the profit growth of all large - scale industrial enterprises by 3.4 percentage points; the leading role of high - tech manufacturing industries was obvious, with the profits of large - scale high - tech manufacturing industries increasing by 8.7% year - on - year, 2.7 percentage points faster than from January to August [2]. - According to IMF forecasts, by 2030, the ratio of the US government's total debt to GDP will soar by more than 20 percentage points from the current level, reaching 143.4%, breaking the post - pandemic historical record [2]. 3.7 Key Points of Attention - There is no news today [2]