宏观经济专题研究：界货币变迁史

Group 1: Historical Currency Evolution - The transition of world currencies reflects the shift in global economic power, following the logic of "trade foundation, financial innovation consolidation, and debt and military collapse" [1] - The Spanish dollar emerged as the first global currency in the 16th century, supported by South American silver resources, contributing 50% of the world's silver from the Potosi mine [1] - The decline of the Spanish dollar was due to a vicious cycle of war and debt, with four defaults between 1557 and 1596 and a significant reduction in silver input after the defeat of the Spanish Armada in 1588 [1] Group 2: Financial Innovations and Declines - The Dutch Guilder became the new world currency in the 17th century, driven by trade advantages and innovations from the Amsterdam Bank, including a clearing system that reduced cross-border settlement time to 3 days [2] - The Guilder's decline was marked by the Fourth Anglo-Dutch War (1780-1784), leading to massive losses for the Dutch East India Company and a collapse of the 100% reserve requirement, resulting in a currency devaluation of 12% [2] - The British pound rose to dominance in the 19th century, with 80% of international trade settled in pounds by the late 19th century, supported by the establishment of the gold standard and the Bank of England's central banking functions [3] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Risks - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of -0.50%, while retail sales increased by 3.00% year-on-year, and exports rose by 8.30% year-on-year [6] - M2 money supply growth was recorded at 8.37%, indicating liquidity in the economy [6] - Risks include volatility in overseas markets and a slowdown in overseas economic growth [5]