震荡等待会议指引

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for crude oil is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil's short - term driving force has weakened. After the geopolitical and macro - level positive factors are digested, the market has returned to an oscillatory state. The fundamental pressure remains unsolved, and there is strong resistance at the $65 level. Attention should be focused on the OPEC+ meeting results, and be vigilant against unexpectedly negative news [2] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Market Structure - Multiple charts present the WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil forward curves and monthly spreads, including data from the latest, one - week ago, and two - weeks ago, which help analyze the market structure [6][10][13] Supply - The OPEC+ meeting is the focus, with the market expecting a slight increase in production. However, the quota negotiation of Iraq may bring unexpectedly negative impacts. Geopolitical factors such as events in Venezuela and Russia have not caused supply disruptions for now, but potential disturbances need to be monitored. Overall, the supply is relatively loose, suppressing the upward movement of oil prices [2] Demand - The improvement in the macro - economic sentiment has not effectively translated into increased crude oil demand. Funds prefer the stock market, and crude oil shows weakness among commodities. The expectation of a Fed rate cut is neutral, and it is difficult to boost demand in the short term. If the economy weakens more than expected, it may have complex impacts [2] Inventory - According to API data for the week ending October 25, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 1.001 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels, distillate inventories decreased by 1.3 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 343,000 barrels. The overall inventory change has a neutral impact on oil prices. The current contango structure of the crude oil market reflects concerns about future supply gluts [2] Position/US Dollar - Multiple charts show the WTI and Brent fund positions, total positions, and the US dollar index, which are important for analyzing market sentiment and the relationship between the crude oil market and the US dollar [31][32]