KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-10-28 12:13Core Insights - The report indicates that the swine industry is entering a de-stocking cycle, while the beef cattle sector continues to experience an upward trend in demand and pricing [2][3] Group 1: Swine Industry - The swine sector is witnessing accelerated de-stocking driven by policy and market dynamics, presenting a good opportunity for investment [3][43] - As of Q3 2025, China's pig output reached 530 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, with pork production at 43.68 million tons, up 3.0% year-on-year [10][13] - The average price of pigs in October 2025 dropped to 10.84 yuan/kg, a significant decline of 40.28% year-on-year, marking a new low for the year [10][13] Group 2: Beef Cattle Industry - The beef cattle supply is contracting, with the cycle of demand expected to continue its upward trajectory until 2027 [4][49] - In Q3 2025, the number of beef cattle in China was 99.32 million heads, a decrease of 2.4% year-on-year, while beef production reached 5.5 million tons, up 3.3% year-on-year [49][51] - The average price of beef in September 2025 was 70.52 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.36% [59] Group 3: Poultry Industry - The white chicken sector is experiencing a gradual increase in demand, with the output of white feathered chickens expected to rise to 90.3 million heads in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.2% [94][98] - The rolling update of grandparent stock for white feathered chickens is projected to decline, which will support an increase in chicken prices in 2026 [100] Group 4: Seed Industry - Grain prices are expected to stabilize and rise due to various factors, including U.S.-China tariff disturbances and climate impacts [6] - The commercialization of genetically modified crops is anticipated to accelerate, supported by an increase in the number of approved varieties [6] Group 5: Pet Industry - The pet food export volume in China increased by 7.55% year-on-year from January to September 2025, indicating strong performance from leading companies [7] - Domestic pet consumption is expected to grow due to increasing companionship demand and emotional value associated with pet ownership [7]