PP日报：震荡下行-20251028

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View The report indicates that although recent cost increases and macro - economic warming have pushed PP to rebound, PP lacks its own upward momentum. Considering factors such as supply, demand, and macro - policies, it is expected that PP will experience a weak and volatile trend [1]. Details from Different Sections Market Analysis - PP downstream开工率 increased by 0.52 percentage points to 52.37%, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The plastic weaving开工率 rose by 0.14 percentage points to 44.4%, with slightly more orders but still slightly lower than last year [1]. - On October 27, some overhauled devices like the second line of Yulong Petrochemical restarted, causing the PP企业开工率 to rise to around 81%, a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring products increased to about 30% [1][4]. - Petrochemical inventories are currently at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years. The cost of raw materials, with factors such as US sanctions on Russian oil companies and military confrontations, led to a significant rebound in crude oil prices from a low level [1]. - A new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of overhauled devices has recently decreased. The peak season demand is lower than expected, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market [1]. - The mutual collection of special port fees for ships by China and the US has increased concerns about economic growth. There are no practical anti - involution policies in the PP industry yet, but such policies and the elimination of old devices to address over - capacity will affect future market trends [1]. Futures and Spot Market - In the futures market, the PP2601 contract decreased by 0.37% with increased positions, closing at 6657 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, and the position increased by 2998 lots to 611,345 lots [2]. - In the spot market, most PP spot prices in various regions declined, with drawstring products priced at 6390 - 6630 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on October 27, the restart of overhauled devices like the second line of Yulong Petrochemical led to the PP企业开工率 rising to around 81%, a moderately low level [4]. - On the demand side, as of the week ending October 24, the PP downstream开工率 increased by 0.52 percentage points to 52.37%, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [4]. - Petrochemical inventories decreased by 30,000 tons to 720,000 tons on Tuesday, 35,000 tons lower than the same period last year, currently at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. Raw Material End The Brent crude oil 01 contract dropped to $64 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained unchanged at $760 per ton [6].