宏观深度报告：重启降息后，美债利率如何走？

Group 1: Macroeconomic Background of Fed's Rate Cut - The U.S. economy is slowing down, with a real GDP growth of 2.1% in the first half of the year, below the expected growth of nearly 3% for 2023-2024 and the 2015-2019 average of 2.6%[2] - Employment demand and supply are both weak, with an average of only 27,000 new non-farm jobs added monthly from May to August, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%[2] - Inflation is showing a mixed structure, with stable but high headline inflation, and commodity inflation rising offset by a decline in service inflation[2] Group 2: U.S. Treasury Yield Trends and Supply-Demand Characteristics - The term premium for U.S. Treasuries has significantly increased, reflecting investor caution towards long-term risks, with 20-year and above Treasuries at historically high premium levels[2] - The supply-demand structure for Treasuries is changing, with the Treasury increasing short-term debt issuance while maintaining stable overall financing[2] - As of September, T-Bills accounted for 21.5% of the total outstanding marketable debt, indicating a shift in financing strategy[2] Group 3: Historical Experience of Rate Cuts and Future Outlook - Historically, in the seven rate cut cycles from 1982 to 2019, the 10-year Treasury yield typically declines before the first cut due to "expectation pricing," but may rebound in the following months[2] - The Fed is expected to be cautious in its rate cut approach, with only one cut likely in October or December this year, and 2-3 cuts anticipated next year, leading to a policy rate around 3% by the end of 2026[2] - The 10-year Treasury yield is projected to fluctuate between 3.9% and 4.3% in the next 1-3 months, and potentially drop to 3.5%-4% in the 3-6 month outlook[2]