Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.49%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Rebar demand continued its seasonal recovery, but supply also increased, and the fundamentals did not improve. There was significant pressure to reduce inventory, and steel prices were still prone to downward pressure. The relatively positive factors were cost support and production - restriction disturbances. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate and stabilize, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.85%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, the supply pressure of hot - rolled coils remained, and there were concerns about demand. The fundamentals did not improve substantially, and prices continued to be under pressure. The relatively positive factors were cost support and production - restriction disturbances. It is expected that the trend will continue to fluctuate and stabilize, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore showed a strong trend, with a daily increase of 1.93%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, market sentiment improved, and iron ore prices rebounded from the low level. However, ore supply remained at a high level, while demand continued to weaken. In the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of iron ore were not good, and high - valued ore prices were prone to downward pressure. It is expected that ore prices will continue to fluctuate under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - The central bank will implement a one - time personal credit relief policy at the beginning of 2026, which is expected to help stabilize the real estate market. These measures will have a positive impact on improving market liquidity and residents' housing purchase ability, and are conducive to the recovery of the real estate market's expectations [6]. - In the first three quarters, the national investment in water conservancy construction reached 879.79 billion yuan. The Ministry of Water Resources promoted the construction of water conservancy infrastructure [7]. - According to the latest production schedule report of three major white - goods products, the total planned production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in November 2025 was 28.47 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 17.7%. Specifically, the planned production volume of household air conditioners in November was 12.76 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.7%; that of refrigerators was 7.78 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%; and that of washing machines was 7.93 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2% [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,190, 3,150, and 3,249 respectively, with price changes of 10, 10, and 15. The spot prices of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,340, 3,240, and 3,360 respectively, with price changes of 10, 20, and 10. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,980 with a change of 20, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,160 with no change. The coil - rebar price difference was 150 with no change, and the rebar - scrap price difference was 1,030 with a change of 10 [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 797 with a change of 4, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 823 with a change of 5, the sea freight from Australia was 9.54 with a change of - 0.15, the sea freight from Brazil was 22.61 with a change of - 0.32, the SGX swap price (current month) was 105.66 with a change of 0.46, and the Platts index (CFR, 62%) was 106.50 with a change of 1.35 [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,091, with a daily increase of 0.49%. The trading volume was 1,333,406 with a decrease of 362,795, and the open interest was 1,930,357 with a decrease of 22,644 [13]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,305, with a daily increase of 0.85%. The trading volume was 504,315 with a decrease of 91,619, and the open interest was 1,473,797 with a decrease of 8,933 [13]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 792.5, with a daily increase of 1.93%. The trading volume was 330,083 with a decrease of 33,211, and the open interest was 548,944 with a decrease of 9,902 [13]. 后市研判 - For rebar, both supply and demand increased. The weekly output of rebar increased by 5.91 tons, and inventory was relatively high. Although demand continued to improve seasonally, it was still at a low level in the same period in recent years, and the peak season might be lackluster. The fundamentals did not improve, and there was great pressure to reduce inventory. Steel prices were still prone to downward pressure. With cost support and production - restriction disturbances, it is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate and stabilize, and attention should be paid to demand performance [37]. - For hot - rolled coils, the supply - demand pattern improved slightly, and inventory decreased again. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased slightly by 0.62 tons and remained at a high level this year, and inventory was high, so the supply pressure continued to suppress steel prices. Although demand was okay, there were concerns about the main downstream cold - rolled production and external demand. The fundamentals did not improve substantially, and prices continued to be under pressure. With cost support and production - restriction disturbances, it is expected that the trend will continue to fluctuate and stabilize, and attention should be paid to demand performance [37]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern continued to weaken. Steel mill production weakened, and ore consumption continued to decline. The supply of iron ore remained at a high level, with both domestic port arrivals and miner shipments at high levels this year. Although market sentiment improved and ore prices rebounded from the low level, the high - valued ore prices were prone to downward pressure due to the strong supply and weak demand. It is expected that ore prices will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [38].
市场情绪趋稳，钢矿震荡运行：钢材&铁矿石日报-20251028
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-10-28 13:33