有色普跌：2025年10月28日有色日报-20251028

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - 沪铜: On October 28, 2025, Shanghai copper showed weak oscillations in the morning and a sharp decline in the afternoon, with the main contract price dropping to around 87,000. The macro - environment turned bearish in the afternoon, leading to a general decline in the non - ferrous sector. Copper decreased with reduced positions, indicating strong short - term profit - taking intentions of long - positions. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6]. - 沪铝: On the same day, Shanghai aluminum also had weak oscillations in the morning and a sharp decline in the afternoon. Affected by the bearish macro - environment in the afternoon and the general decline of the non - ferrous sector, aluminum decreased with reduced positions, and short - term long - positions had strong profit - taking intentions. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 10 - day moving average [7]. - 沪镍: Shanghai nickel oscillated weakly on this day, with a significant decline accompanied by increased positions at the end of the session. Previously, when the macro - environment improved, non - ferrous metals prices rose, but nickel only had a weak rebound with reduced positions. With the macro - environment turning bearish today, nickel prices declined with increased positions. In terms of funds, nickel is still an under - allocated short position in the non - ferrous sector. Technically, attention should be paid to the low in October for support [8]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Copper: According to Industrial Online data, in September 2025, China's household air - conditioner production was 10.567 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5%; sales were 10.884 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 10.2%. Among them, domestic sales were 5.949 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5%; exports were 4.935 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1% [10]. - Nickel: On October 28, 2025, the price range of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,700 - 123,600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 900 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,200 - 2,400 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 300 - 100 yuan/ton. Due to the change of quotation month, both premiums decreased [10]. 3.2 Related Charts - Copper: The report provides multiple copper - related charts, including copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc [11][12][13]. - Aluminum: Related charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, aluminum rod inventory, etc [24][26][28]. - Nickel: Charts involve nickel basis, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, nickel ore port inventory, etc [37][39][40].