粤开宏观：《“十五五”规划建议》的12大看点：科技自立与扩大内需引领新征程

Economic Environment and Challenges - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the coexistence of strategic opportunities and risks, highlighting increased uncertainty in the development environment[3] - External challenges are expected to intensify, with geopolitical tensions and trade barriers affecting China's economic landscape[17] - The plan identifies effective demand insufficiency and the need for new and old kinetic energy conversion as critical issues[19] Development Goals - The plan sets seven major development goals, including achieving significant high-quality development and a notable increase in the resident consumption rate[20] - Aiming for an average nominal GDP growth rate of 5% during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period to reach a per capita GDP of approximately $27,000 by 2035[21] - The target for the resident consumption rate is to increase from 40% to 43%, necessitating a 6.5% annual growth in consumption[22] Industrial and Technological Focus - The establishment of a modern industrial system is prioritized, with a focus on maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing in the economy[25] - The plan emphasizes the importance of technological self-reliance and innovation as a core component of high-quality development[33] - Specific sectors such as new energy, advanced manufacturing, and digital economy are highlighted for rapid development and support[28] Domestic Demand and Investment - Expanding domestic demand is identified as a strategic foundation for modernization, with a focus on enhancing consumer confidence and increasing disposable income[35] - The plan calls for optimizing the investment structure, directing funds towards education, healthcare, and emerging technologies[36] - Reforming the income distribution system is crucial for sustainable consumption growth and fostering a robust middle-income group[38] Governance and Policy Coordination - The plan advocates for improving the macroeconomic governance system and enhancing policy effectiveness through better coordination of fiscal and monetary policies[39] - Emphasis is placed on creating a stable and predictable institutional environment to support market participants[42] - The need for a proactive fiscal policy is highlighted to address short-term fiscal challenges while ensuring long-term sustainability[43]