事件点评：央行重启国债买卖或是一次性利好

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank's restart of treasury bond trading only affects the rhythm of the bond market, not its direction, similar to the impact of the stamp duty cut on the stock market in August 2023 [5]. - Against the backdrop of revised economic expectations, bond yields are expected to rise trend - like. For stock - bond allocation, it is maintained that in the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly, structural issues such as prices are expected to improve trend - like, and there will be a continued switch between stock - bond allocation with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise [6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Central Bank's Reasons for Restarting Treasury Bond Trading - The central bank's trading of treasury bonds is mainly to enrich the channels for base money injection, and the channel for long - term base money injection is gradually shifting from foreign exchange purchases and reserve requirement ratio cuts to treasury bond trading. This change is in line with the central bank's established goals, and restarting treasury bond trading within the year is a reasonable arrangement. Also, it is a common and mature base money injection method in developed countries like the US and Japan [6]. Changes in the Central Bank's Treasury Bond Trading Method - In 2024, the central bank's bond purchases significantly affected the short - end market. Banks actively bought short - term bonds in the secondary market during the yield decline to meet purchase quotas, leading to a significant drop in short - term treasury bond yields. In 2025, since May, banks have restarted bond purchases with a similar volume to 2024, but short - term treasury bond yields did not decline abnormally. It is speculated that the bond purchase method has changed to passive buying, similar to a market - maker role. The impact on bond yields has shifted from pushing down short - end yields to curbing their upward movement. In 2025, the central bank may mainly buy bonds previously purchased by large banks, with large banks first stocking up bonds and then the central bank buying their existing bonds [3][6][7]. Impact of Central Bank's Treasury Bond Trading on the Bond Market - Historically and internationally, the central bank's selling of treasury bonds does not necessarily lead to an increase in bond yields, and buying does not necessarily lead to a decrease. For example, in August 2024, the central bank sold treasury bonds when the 10 - year treasury bond yield was low, but long - end and ultra - long - end bond yields still declined significantly. In recent years, central banks in the US and Japan have continuously bought bonds, but their long - term treasury bond yields have been rising, with 30 - year treasury bond yields above 3%. Inflation expectations are considered the key factor affecting bond yields. If inflation or inflation expectations rise, long - term yields should follow. For instance, in the first half of 2009, long - term treasury bond yields rose significantly due to rising inflation expectations despite low short - term yields [4]. - The central bank's announcement of treasury bond trading is likely to have a one - time impact. From international experience, central bank bond purchases do not change the bond market's direction. However, market expectations of central bank bond purchases have restricted the rise of bond yields. Since the central bank did not announce an interest rate cut simultaneously, the probability of future interest rate cuts is not high after this treasury bond trading. After yields decline, some investors may sell, pushing yields up again [4].